Cristiano Ronaldo vs Lionel Messi: Who will reach the mythical 1000-goal mark first? The stats have an answer

The idea of 1,000 goals in a football career sounds like a fantasy. Yet, late in 2025, two players, the greatest of their generation, are close enough for the question to feel serious rather than silly. One is 40 and still scoring almost a goal a game in Saudi Arabia, while the other is 38, running MLS like a personal playground.

So the real question here is not who is better. It is colder than that: with age, contracts, and recent output all factored in, does either actually have a practical route to 1,000 official goals?

Where the numbers stand now

Cristiano Ronaldo: 953 goals in 1,296 games

Lionel Messi: 892 goals in 1,132 games

That leaves:

Ronaldo needing 47 more to reach 1,000

Messi needing 108 more to reach 1,000

Their contract horizons matter just as much as the totals. Ronaldo has extended with Al Nassr until June 2027, taking him to the age of 42. Messi, meanwhile, has committed to Inter Miami until 2028, which carries him to his age of around 41.

So, roughly, Ronaldo has about two more full seasons guaranteed at the current level, while Messi has three.

Our projection method

To avoid pure guesswork, the projection uses their last three calendar years as the base: 2023, 2024, and 2025. Messi has scored 28, 29, and 42 goals respectively in these three seasons, while Ronaldo has returned 54, 43, and 37. This gives an average of around 33 goals per year for Messi and 45 for Ronaldo. From there, we assume a realistic, age-linked decline, not a heroic late-career surge, and ask a blunt question: can they keep scoring enough, for long enough, within the span of their current deals to close their respective gaps to 1,000 career goals?

Cristiano Ronaldo’s chances

Cristiano Ronaldo’s recent trend actually helps him. After that enormous 54-goal 2023, he dipped to 43 in 2024 and has around 37 goals in 41 matches so far in the 2025 season across Al Nassr and Portugal. Even if we treat that as the top of the downslope, his three-year average of around 45 goals a year gives him room to fall.

To reach 1,000 from 953, he needs 47 goals. Split across two more full seasons, that is roughly 24 goals per season - nearly half of what he has been producing recently.

Several practical factors lean his way:

He plays as a striker and penalty-taker in a high-scoring Saudi Pro League side.

His minutes and usage remain high; he is not phased into a cameo role.

The contract through 2027 virtually guarantees the platform to keep starting and scoring.

Even allowing for a steep age drop, for instance, 30 goals in 2026 and 20 in 2027, he still clears the 47-goal requirement. Under any sane decline curve based on his 2023-25 numbers, Ronaldo lands on or over four figures if he simply completes his Al Nassr contract without any major injury or early retirement call.

Also Read: Cristiano Ronaldo did for Portugal what Lionel Messi could not for Argentina: A deep dive into the two legacies

Lionel Messi’s chances

Lionel Messi’s situation is more complex. His last three calendar years show 28 goals in 2023, 29 in 2024, and then an explosion to 42 in 2025 for Inter Miami and Argentina. Settled in MLS, he is back near his historic efficiency but from a lower starting point than Ronaldo in pure volume.

He has 892 official goals, meaning he needs 108 more. With three full seasons likely ahead, that translates to roughly 36 goals per year just to get to 1,000.

That would require him to sustain or surpass his current 42-goal level. While not impossible, several contextual factors make it less likely:

At Inter Miami, he is a playmaker and a finisher in equal measure, piling up assists as well as goals. If his legs slow further, he can slide even more into a creative role, naturally trimming the goal count.

He has spoken more openly about the end of his career and life after football, signalling a softer landing rather than a record-chasing obsession.

In a generous scenario, three more seasons around 35-28 goals, Messi could flirt around the 1,000 mark. But under a more conservative, age-realistic band of 35-20, he probably finishes somewhere in the 960-980 range. The gap of 108 is simply much harder to bridge than Ronaldo’s 47.

What this means

Ronaldo needs 47 to reach 1,000 career goals. With a recent average of around 45 goals a year and a role built for finishing, he is statistically well-placed to cross the mark if he stays on the pitch until 2027. Messi, however, with 108 more goals to go, can get there only if he strings together three more heavy-duty scoring seasons, a far tougher task.

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