Hugo Ekitike: Data that convinced Liverpool to sign forward

There was a touch with his left foot to control the ball, then one with his right to create space away from the defender before a precise shot into the corner.

A few days later, a fortuitous break was followed by a clinical finish.

If it is said first impressions can be misleading, then Hugo Ekitike does not intend that to be the case. Two games for Liverpool, against Crystal Palace and then Bournemouth, two goals. Next up, a fire-and-brimstone collision against Newcastle United, who had competed for his signature this summer.

Indeed, if anything is deceiving about Ekitike, then it is perhaps the headline data from last season that is now commonplace in football parlance: xG (expected goals) is part of the game’s lexicon and, in this case, painted an interesting image of the striker.

Ekitike may have had the third-highest xG (excluding penalties) in Europe’s top five leagues last season (19.3), which was bettered only by Serhou Guirassy (19.6) and Robert Lewandowski (24), yet no player underperformed their xG by more than the Eintracht Frankfurt forward. He had five fewer goals than expected.

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For a club looking to move on from Darwin Núñez, whose three years at Anfield were marked by a Premier League xG underperformance of 8.5, the most of anyone other than Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Ekitike might have looked a strange match-up from the outside.

So why did Liverpool, who have been at the cutting edge of analytical recruitment for a number of years, pursue and seal a £69million (rising to £79million) deal for the 23-year-old?

Liverpool’s analysis found that Ekitike’s numbers are comparable to peers such as Mbappé and Haaland TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER BRADLEY ORMESHER

For a start, the champions view the metric of xG as being flawed, as it lacks wider context. Their tracking models look at far more than shooting and it was evident through their background research that Ekitike was performing to a particularly high standard in other elements of his game.

The breadth of the work undertaken is, obviously, a closely guarded secret, but space creation and ball carrying is one area Liverpool look at. Passing execution and decision making is another, while Will Spearman, Liverpool’s director of research, has also developed a concept called pitch control, which is linked to a player’s speed. Ekitike was one of the Bundesliga’s fastest players, clocking 35.5km/h.

Quality of opposition and past performances, for example those prior to the most recent season, were factored into their extensive groundwork.

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Liverpool also use historical comparisons to add further context and understanding to their analysis.

Liverpool believe Ekitike will develop further under Slot ANDREW POWELL/GETTY IMAGES

During the period in which they have the strongest and most detailed historical tracking data, 2020-21 onwards, the top under-23 strikers were Erling Haaland, then of Borussia Dortmund, Real Sociedad’s Alexander Isak and Kylian Mbappé of Paris Saint-Germain.

Ekitike is understood to have scored well in a wide-ranging assessment, featuring alongside those luminaries, and that made it easier to press ahead with the transfer.

An enlightening article by Matt Furniss of Opta Analyst this summer alighted on what some of Ekitike’s strengths could be.

Looking back at the 2024-25 Bundesliga season, it was noted that Ekitike ranked seventh for open-play chance creation in the league. He was adept at bringing team-mates into play and that was evident with his run and assist for Cody Gakpo in Friday’s 4-2 opening-day victory over Bournemouth.

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Across the top five European leagues in 2024-25, Ekitike was one of just four players to play at least 1,500 minutes and average both more than four shots per 90 (4.1) and over seven touches in the opposition box per 90 (7.2).

The others? Lamine Yamal, Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé. It is all about the company you keep.

There have already been examples of him missing chances at Liverpool. Ekitike should have scored with a header from Gakpo’s cross against Bournemouth or, at least, ensured the effort was on target.

Yet forwards will always spurn opportunities and Liverpool believe given his age, and that he will now be working in an elite environment and with an elite coach, further improvement can, and will, be coaxed from him.

Liverpool had been in contact with Ekitike’s camp since January. The head coach, Arne Slot, spoke to the player at the end of last season, which blows a hole in the notion that Newcastle were gazumped at the 11th hour.

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Newcastle had already failed with moves for Liam Delap, João Pedro and Matheus Cunha before targeting Ekitike and did so at a time when they were also spinning plates with Yoane Wissa, Ollie Watkins and Benjamin Sesko.

The death of Diogo Jota, his funeral and the immediate aftermath meant Liverpool took a step back from transfer dealings.

It served their purpose to allow Newcastle to be seen to be making the running for Ekitike because they knew that an auction would drive his price up. Instead, Richard Hughes, the Liverpool sporting director, played his hand when the deal on a potential switch to St James’ Park was almost agreed.

It is clear that Jota’s death forced Liverpool to look again at their plans.

Isak’s future appears no closer to being resolved ROBBIE JAY BARRATT/GETTY IMAGES

Hughes and Michael Edwards, chief executive officer of football for Fenway Sports Group who own Liverpool, had used the word “irreplaceable” about the Portuguese on the day he died in a car crash alongside his brother, Andre Silva.

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They meant from a human perspective, but from a squad perspective Jota was unique as well. Good enough to start, he was also arguably the best attacking substitute in the top flight.

Liverpool have needed two attackers since then. Not least to share the workload.

Ekitike played 3,644 minutes for Frankfurt last season, which was by far the most in his club career and bodes well for the future, but Liverpool played 56 matches last term. That equates to at least 5,040 minutes.

The saga over Slot’s pursuit of Isak, the failed £110million bid, has presented them with a problem. For now, Ekitike looks like a bona fide solution.

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