The brave roster calls and tough $2m move that prove why Raiders won’t be a one-hit NRL wonder

They have been the biggest surprise of the 2025 season but while this may feel like a very different Canberra team to the ones of years past, the reality isn’t that straight-forward.

In fact, a simple look at the team list from the last time the Raiders made it to the second week of the finals, when they were demolished 40-4 against the Eels, would tell you differently.

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It was 2022. Xavier Savage (albeit at fullback), Matthew Timoko and Seb Kris featured in the backline with Jamal Fogarty at halfback. Josh Papalii and Joseph Tapine, meanwhile, headlined a star-studded forward pack that included Hudson Young and Corey Horsburgh with Tom Starling providing spark off the bench.

Sure, there were plenty of familiar faces that are now distant memories in the lime green. Jack Wighton at five-eighth. Nick Cotric and Jordan Rapana on the wings.

But the same nucleus of the team is there.

The same remains even more true for the 17 that beat the Dragons in the final game of the regular season last year, as the Raiders finished just short of a top-eight berth on for-and-against.

It is probably part of the reason why Ricky Stuart’s team were such a trendy pick for some pundits to run last.

On paper, not much had changed for the better — at least on the surface.

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Ethan Sanders was on his way over from Parramatta but wouldn’t get a run unless there were injuries, as was the case for Myles Martin while Savelio Tamale had shown promise at the Dragons but not enough to guarantee he’d be anything special.

Out the door, on the other hand, were experienced Raiders in Elliott Whitehead, Cotric and Rapana among other players like Zac Woolford, Emre Guler and James Schiller who had been regular first-graders.

If anything, it looked like a rebuilding year for the Raiders and in some ways it has been just that — even if the results haven’t followed what you’d typically expect of a retooling season.

Instead of taking a few steps backwards in order to go forwards, Canberra has unexpectedly catapulted itself into premiership contention while at the same time setting up the foundations for sustainable success.

Kaeo Weekes, at just 23 years old, has been a revelation at fullback while Tamale, before he suffered an injury, was a breakout star in the backline.

The soon-to-be departing Fogarty has proven the perfect foil for the developing Ethan Strange with Sanders waiting in the wings to form one of the youngest but most exciting halves combinations in the NRL in 2026.

It may have taken a tough call to part ways with Wighton to open the door for Strange to get his opportunity, but in doing so the Raiders have seemingly saved themselves plenty of room in the salary cap while also making an upgrade considering the 21-year-old’s development this year.

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Ethan Strange has been a revelation this year. NRL PHOTOS Source: The Daily Telegraph

Stuart said on the ‘Off The Record’ podcast with Phil Rothfield and Andrew Webster that Strange was the one Raiders player that he did the least amount of video on.

It didn’t take him long anyway to be sold on the young five-eighth.

“When I was brought the vision in regards to Ethan, I watched about two to three minutes of it and I wanted to bring him in for a chat,” Stuart said.

“I told his mother that I’d look after him off the field and then his game would look after itself.”

Stuart saw the same defensive tendencies as Wighton and Laurie Daley, while the way he ran the football reminded the Raiders coach — again — of Laurie, Jack and Storm livewire Cameron Munster.

Munster’s former teammate, premiership-winning Melbourne halfback Cooper Cronk, also saw the same defensive strengths in Strange’s game, which is rare for younger players.

Typically you get the flashy stuff. The no-look passes like Lachlan Galvin threw to win the game for the Bulldogs against the Dragons. But the defensive technique isn’t quite there yet.

With Strange it was the opposite. He “doesn’t take a backwards step” as Cronk put it. He embraces contact, and it made him a near-instant success in the NRL.

And while that may seem like a fluke or a stroke of luck, it’s not. As Adam Pengilly revealed from his sit-down interviews with coach Stuart and CEO Don Furner earlier in the year, both men ask themselves one question before they finalise deals: what does it mean for the salary cap in three years time?

The Raiders have been the NRL’s Cinderella story. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

“Some coaches don’t have to think that far ahead,” Furner told foxsports.com.au at the time.

“But Rick doesn’t want to leave the club in a s*** situation salary cap wise. I understand, coaches have got to win tomorrow. I think we’re lucky in the fact the board trusts him, the club trusts him, and he trusts us. He’s not looking over his shoulder and worried. He’s not insecure. It helps for better decisions to be made for the organisation.”

In some ways it is the benefit of being in Canberra, away from the Sydney bubble. There isn’t the same level of scrutiny or pressure — at least externally — to produce results right away.

The product has been a level of patience that other coaches are not often afforded and to his credit, Stuart has made the most of it.

But alongside that patience has been a shrewd sense for when it is the right time to move on from players.

Again, as Pengilly pointed out in his column, Josh Hodgson may be the best example and you can add Elliott Whitehead, Jarrod Croker, Ryan Sutton and Rapana to that list.

Wighton too, perhaps. It is hard to get a true read for his time at South Sydney given the injuries and constant chopping and changing of that roster.

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But either way, his departure gave the Raiders the freedom to let Strange develop into the player he is now while also opening up salary cap space for them to extend the likes of Simi Sasagi, who cemented himself as a regular first-grader after an injury to Zac Hosking in 2024.

Such extensions may also have not been possible if the Raiders got into a bidding war with the Sea Eagles when it came to Fogarty’s signature, which reportedly cost $2 million over three seasons, and you could understand why Canberra would have been desperate to do just that if the focus was winning a title in the next few years.

With such a young squad (average age of 24.7 entering the season), there is still so much growth left and a steadying halfback like Fogarty at the centre of it all works well.

In fact, the numbers speak to just how much the Raiders have missed Fogarty in games he has missed — especially since last season when he was sidelined with a biceps injury.

RAIDERS SINCE 2022

When Jamal Fogarty is MISSING

Games: 23

Won: 10

Lost: 13

Win Percentage: 43.5

Points for (avg): 17.1

Points against (avg): 23.9

When Jamal Fogarty is PLAYING

Games: 73

Won: 47

Lost: 26

Win Percentage: 64.4

Points for (avg): 23.8

Points against (avg): 22.5

RAIDERS SINCE 2024

When Jamal Fogarty is MISSING

Games: 11

Won: 5

Lost: 6

Win Percentage: 45.5

Points for (avg): 17.3

Points against (avg): 27.5

When Jamal Fogarty is PLAYING

Games: 34

Won: 24

Lost: 10

Win Percentage: 70.6

Points for (avg): 25.6

Points against (avg): 21.1

Jamal Fogarty has been a key part of Canberra’s success. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

At that early stage of the 2024 season, Canberra looked a genuine top-eight team with potential top-four aspirations before the Fogarty injury derailed everything.

This season, now that he has stayed healthy, Fogarty has been one of the league’s most in-form halfbacks ranking third (25) in try assists and try involvements (42), second in forced dropouts (17) and first in kick metres (9,531).

Without him next season, there will only be more pressure on Strange who has excelled this year playing second fiddle to Fogarty but has averaged just 24 possessions per game compared to 57 for his dominant halves partner.

If he is joined by an even less experienced Sanders in 2026, you can expect growing pains early and in some ways it only increases the level of urgency to capitalise on the opportunity the Raiders have this season to win the premiership while Fogarty is still around.

“Jamal has been a very important piece of what’s happened this year,” former Panthers premiership winner Greg Alexander told foxsports.com.au.

“He’s got a lot of great players and a lot of strike weapons around him and he’s used them to his advantage.

“I don’t know if the Raiders are looking at the premiership window. You don’t want to waste any chance. You don’t want to waste any opening that you’ve been given and there is an opening here for the Raiders.

“They’ll likely win the minor premiership, something that hasn’t happened since 1990.”

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But even if they don’t win the premiership, in some ways it is a good thing that the Raiders didn’t impulsively throw money at Fogarty or any other short-term solution just yet.

Matty Johns said earlier in the year that he had heard Sanders is “still 18 months away”, adding that the Raiders likely needed someone to bridge the gap between Fogarty leaving and Sanders developing into a full-time first grader, especially given he views Strange as “predominantly a runner of the ball”.

There are a few players who fit that mould like Sean O’Sullivan and Jack Cogger available while the Raiders have reportedly also shown interest in Sandon Smith.

But if that doesn’t work out with the majority of the side outside of maybe Papalii still with their best years ahead of them, would it be the worst thing to use 2026 as a transition year where Sanders and Strange are given the time to find their way while someone like Owen Pattie gets more of a run as the potential long-term option at hooker?

After all, look at the development of some of Canberra’s younger players this year, which has to be one of the main reasons why the Raiders suddenly emerged as a premiership threat.

The Raiders have plenty to look forward to. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images) Source: Getty Images

Beyond that, they have a forward pack that perfectly blends both a power game and subtlety through its short-range passing game and second phase play.

Their outside backs are explosive and have the speed to burn their outside men for the slightest second of indecision.

They, along with Canberra’s more agile and athletic forwards, are proof of the evolution of Stuart as a coach who has embraced the youth movement in the nation’s capital with Strange being the frontman.

“Even Tommy Starling,” Alexander said.

“His form this year has warranted an extension at the Raiders where he looked like he was going to be pushed out.”

And then there’s the coach.

“Sticky’s the sort of coach that has just been able to garner a bit of spirit and a bit of belief and a bit of steel in them,” Alexander said.

But, to some extent, there are also the “intangibles” because as Alexander pointed out, it isn’t always easy to pinpoint an exact reason for a turnaround like Canberra’s in 2025.

“Sometimes it’s hard to answer why players all of a sudden find a purple patch in their career... sometimes a lot of things have to fall into place for you to have a good season,” he said.

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Of course, this isn’t just a matter of things falling into place and that wasn’t the point Alexander was making anyway.

It is just part of it. Part of the reason why there is no guarantee next season, irrespective of who lines up in the halfback jumper, will bring the same level of success.

There certainly won’t be the same surprise factor anymore.

But as the Raiders prepare for their greatest test of the 2025 season, it is worth reflecting on just how much this team has changed as well as how much they have stayed the same.

Both the players who have walked out the door along with the ones who have been shown the faith and repaid it.

A win on Friday night takes the Raiders even closer to their first minor premiership since 1990, and while it would signal a major step forward in the short-term it is perhaps an even greater sign of what is to come considering how young this squad still is.

Which is why regardless of what happens in September and how far Canberra goes, there is reason to believe this Raiders team is here to stay. Faders no more.

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