Why Isak and Watkins can outscore Salah as final-day captain in FPL

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The final-day chase for UEFA Champions League football next season boosts the appeal of captaining Alexander Isak (£9.4m) or Ollie Watkins (£9.1m) over Mohamed Salah (£13.6m) in Gameweek 38 of 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League.

Salah’s 66 per cent ownership means he is near-certain to be the most-selected captain for Liverpool's home encounter with Crystal Palace. He has blanked in just THREE of his 18 appearances at Anfield this season, averaging 7.9 points per match.

Yet there’s no denying Salah’s output has dipped dramatically since the Reds won the league, with a run of three straight blanks his worst of the season.

Isak is an injury doubt ahead of Newcastle United’s home match against Everton on Sunday.

Speaking in his pre-match press conference on Friday, Newcastle head coach Eddie Howe said: "Alex is doing OK. He hasn’t trained with us yet but has made good progress. The next few days will be crucial to his availability for the weekend.

"There is a chance, we will only play him if he is fit to contribute. We will leave the decision on Alex until tomorrow."

If he is available, though, the Swede will be crucial to his side’s chances of getting the win they require.

In home matches this season, Isak has matched Salah’s 12 goals, while trailing by five assists to seven.

Aston Villa's Watkins, meanwhile, visits a Manchester United side who have been rotating heavily prior to their UEFA Europa League final defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday evening.

He has the best form of the trio, with two goals, two assists and just one blank over his last four starts. Indeed, his total of 28 points is TWICE that of Salah during that spell.

Attacking output, last four starts

Player G A Pts Watkins 2 2 28 Isak 2 0 19 Salah 1 0 14

Who is facing the worst defence?

As the defensive data shows, Watkins has the most favourable fixture of the trio.

Man Utd have conceded 13 big chances - situations where the player is expected to score - over their last four matches and are without a clean sheet during that period.

Palace and Everton, by contrast, have conceded a COMBINED 12 big chances. They have allowed their opponents a total of nine goals between them, just one more than the Red Devils.

Team defensive stats, last four matches

Club Goals conc. Clean sheets Big chances conc. Man Utd 8 0 13 Crystal Palace 5 1 7 Everton 4 1 5

So, who is the best final-day captain?

Isak’s home output over the whole season – combined with Newcastle’s need for a win – gives him the edge as the best pick, providing he's passed fit.

Watkins does run him a close second, with Man Utd’s defence by far the worst of the three assessed.

While Salah shouldn’t be overlooked altogether, Arne Slot’s recent rotation means that – for once – the Egyptian seems an unnecessarily risky armband pick for Gameweek 38.

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