Thursday semis preview: Will Gauff or Muchova make their first Miami final?

MIAMI -- We're down to our final four at the Miami Open.

In Thursday's semifinals, American Coco Gauff will face Czechia's Karolina Muchova for the sixth time on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz, not before 3:00 p.m. (7:00 p.m. GMT) while World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 2 Elena Rybakina add the latest chapter to their rivalry to close the night session not before 8:30 p.m. (12:30 a.m. GMT)

Excluding the WTA Finals, Sabalenka and Rybakina will be the first top two players in the PIF WTA Rankings to face each other before a final since Martina Hingis and Jana Novotna at the 1998 US Open semifinals. Rybakina, the No. 3 seed in Miami, improved to the No. 2 ranking a day before the first round.

Here's everything to know about Thursday's semifinals:

Gauff vs. Muchova

Head-to-Head: Gauff leads 5-0

Last meeting: Gauff d. Muchova 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 at 2026 Australian Open Round of 16

Why Gauff? Even with her back against the wall, Gauff has found a way to win. She displayed incredible defense numerous times against Belinda Bencic in the quarterfinals that led to winners, and Gauff has been clutch in the third set with all her matches going to the decider.

On paper, Gauff has dominated the series vs. Muchova, and that's no coincidence. Her serve played to her strength against Cirstea and Bencic, and her movement will be put the test against Muchova, who said she likes to the develop the rallies on her forehand.

"I definitely think that, every time I play her, it's a tough match, and I expect the high level that she's going to bring, like she does every match," Gauff said of Muchova. "Honestly, I know we kind of know what we're going to do to each other, and it's just about who can execute it better."

On the line: Gauff can reach her sixth career WTA 1000 final, becoming the third youngest player to do so since the format's introduction in 2009 (Caroline Wozniacki and Iga Swiatek)*

Why Muchova? The Czech hasn't found a way to defeat Gauff historically, but ever since Australia, Muchova has been playing the best tennis of her career as of late. She won the title in Doha, and then defeated Victoria Mboko -- in a Doha final rematch -- in the quarterfinals of Miami. It's already her third semifinal of the season, more than the two she reached last season on tour, and Muchova is a much different player than she was prior to 2026.

Against Mboko, Muchova landed 70% of her first serves and was not broken, facing just two break points. If Muchova can keep Gauff -- who has broken opponents 22 times this tournament -- she'll set herself up with a good opportunity to finally get that first win over the American.

"I feel like everyone is playing incredible," Muchova said. "I don't have the best record against Coco, but I feel good. It's going to be really tough battle.

"Even the record, I mean, I would always take the challenge to play and to try to break it."

On the line: Muchova could reach her eighth career tour-level final, and could make her second hard court final in the same calendar year for the first time in her career.*

Sabalenka vs. Rybakina

Head-to-Head: Sabalenka leads 9-7

Last meeting: Sabalenka def. Rybakina 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (6)

Why Sabalenka? It's now women's tennis' biggest rivalry, and Sabalenka won the latest chapter just under two weeks ago to lift her first Indian Wells and 23rd career singles title. In their 17 meetings, this will be just the second time they meet in the semifinals.

Sabalenka's power is her strength, and often it goes toe-to-toe with Rybakina. She had 29 winners vs. the Kazakh in the Indian Wells final, and won 67% of her first service points in that same match. Sabalenka is also on her quest to sweep the Sunshine Double, let alone defend her singles title in Miami.

"I enjoy our rivalry, I enjoy our battles," Sabalenka said. "I feel we both push each other to the limits and I feel this kind of matches make me as a better player, and this is where I actually grow.

On the line: Sabalenka could reach her 44th career singles final on the WTA Tour, and her fourth of 2026.

Why Rybakina? Rybakina proved in her quarterfinal vs. Jessica Pegula that even when she's not playing at her best, she can find a way to win. It took her about a set and a half to find her groove, and her 15 aces were the most in a single match this tournament. Against Pegula, Rybakina came to the net frequently, and that could be a key tool to defeat Sabalenka this go around.

Rybakina is on the cusp of 100 main draw wins at a WTA 1000, picking up 99 vs. Pegula. She's a two-time finalist in Miami in 2023 and 2024, but has not yet lifted the trophy.

"I'm just on -- let's say -- path of this consistency for now, this year has been good," Rybakina said. But I feel like the season is not even halfway yet, and it's great to play against Aryna. Always pushing each other and you can see what you need to improve.

"If she wins, it's going to be another challenge, where I will need to serve well and really take care of my game, knowing that on the other side, she can hit a lot of good shots, also winners, good serve."

On the line: Elena Rybakina could reach third Miami Open final, becoming the player with the outright most since the tournament moved to Miami Gardens in 2019.*

*Data courtesy of OptaFacts

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