The Numbers Game: Carrick looks to match Solskjaer's start as Man Utd visit Newcastle

A son of the North East returns home on Wednesday, but Manchester United's interim boss Michael Carrick is not looking to do Newcastle United any favours.

Carrick has enjoyed a sensational run since returning to the Old Trafford dugout for his second caretaker spell, and if the Red Devils keep on winning, the pressure to give him the permanent job may become irresistible.

United fought back to beat the 10 men of Crystal Palace 2-1 on Sunday, leapfrogging Aston Villa to go third in the table and taking charge of the race for Champions League football.

Newcastle would have hoped to be in that same mix at the start of the campaign, but instead, they are a lowly 13th following Saturday's 3-2 defeat at home to Everton.

Eddie Howe's side are closer to the relegation zone (11 points clear) than they are to the top five (12 points adrift), with the Magpies boss attracting more scrutiny than ever.

Newcastle's win probability is rated at 43.5%, while Man Utd came out as victors in 29.7% of the pre-match simulations. The likelihood of a draw is 26.8%.

Indeed, Newcastle have won their last three home Premier League matches against Man Utd, as many victories as they managed in their previous 18.

The Magpies last had a longer home league winning run against the Red Devils between 1915 and 1931 (10 in a row).

However, Man Utd are looking to record a Premier League double over Newcastle for the first time since 2020-21, having won 1-0 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day thanks to a stunning goal from Patrick Dorgu.

Newcastle's good returns in this fixture are certainly a recent development, as Howe has overseen 36% of their Premier League wins over Man Utd (4/11).

But recently, the Magpies have found their castle has been breached far too often. They twice came from behind against Everton on Saturday, only to concede again within two minutes on both occasions.

They have now lost three consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since February 2021 under Steve Bruce, also going down to Aston Villa and Brentford.

Newcastle have not lost more than three straight home games in the league since 2018 (five), and the good news is they have only lost two of their last 20 home evening kick-offs (7pm or later) in the competition (W11 D7), going down 0-2 to West Ham in November 2024 and 2-3 to Liverpool in August 2025.

The Magpies have conceded 23 home goals in the top flight this season, with only Wolves (30) and West Ham (27) shipping more, but they also need improvements at the other end of the pitch.

Indeed, Howe has taken to fielding Anthony Gordon up front recently, with big-money signing Nick Woltemade struggling for form and Yoane Wissa battling a series of injuries.

Woltemade played as a number 10 against Everton, but he had just 14 touches in almost an hour on the pitch, failing to have a single shot or create a chance, though Howe revealed ahead of kick-off that the German could miss out here after being struck down by illness.

And while Gordon has thrived in Europe, the England international has scored just three goals from 38 shots in the Premier League this season (8% conversion rate), compared to 11 goals from 38 shots across all other competitions this term (29% conversion rate).

Newcastle's best periods under Howe have come when they have had a solid base to build from, coupled with energetic, intense forward play. They must get back to that identity to avoid this becoming a lost season.

Carrick's impact upon returning to Old Trafford has been seismic, and across his two spells in charge of United, they have earned 23 points from nine Premier League games (W7 D2).

And on Wednesday, he could reach 11 games unbeaten as the Red Devils' boss across all competitions (currently W8 D2 in both spells combined).

Only Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2018-19 (11) has ever overseen more games in charge of the club before experiencing his first defeat.

On Sunday, United were perhaps fortunate that Maxence Lacroix, having put Crystal Palace ahead early on, decided to drag down Matheus Cunha just inside the area, gifting the Red Devils a penalty and a one-man advantage for the remainder of the contest.

United have now avoided defeat in all five Premier League games in which they have trailed in 2026 (W2 D3), their longest unbeaten run after falling behind in the league since winning five such games in a row from November 2020 to January 2021.

Since Carrick took over, United have averaged two goals per Premier League game, more than they averaged under Ruben Amorim this season (1.7).

The Red Devils have averaged fewer expected goals, shots and a lower possession share per game under Carrick (1.5 xG, 13.8 shots, 51.8%) than they did under Amorim (1.79 xG, 16 shots, 53.2%, 2025-26 only), but his true impact has come at the other end of the pitch.

United have conceded fewer goals (0.86 to 1.5), faced fewer shots (10 to 11.3) and conceded fewer expected goals against (0.88 xGA to 1.33) per game under Carrick than they did under Amorim this season.

Fernandes has 13 Premier League assists this season, the most by a Man Utd player in a single campaign since Antonio Valencia in 2011-12 (also 13).

Only David Beckham in 1999-00 (15) and Nani in 2010-11 (14) have ever provided more in a single campaign for the club.

Since his Premier League debut in February 2020, Fernandes has both scored and assisted in 18 separate matches in the competition, with only Mohamed Salah (27) doing so more often.

Indeed, only Wayne Rooney (35) and Ryan Giggs (22) have done this more times for United in the Premier League than Fernandes, with the Portuguese midfielder surpassing Beckham (17).

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