Early Week 11 bets: Bengals and Dolphins to cover; don't overlook Mahomes

Week 11 gets underway with the red-hot New England Patriots hosting the division rival New York Jets on "Thursday Night Football."

Sunday gets another early start when the Miami Dolphins, fresh off their upset win over the Buffalo Bills, face the Washington Commanders in Madrid, Spain (9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network).

The rest of the day's slate features a plethora of marquee matchups, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Bills, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, facing off for first place in the NFC West and the Denver Broncos hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in a key AFC West clash. To finish the day off, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Detroit Lions on "Sunday Night Football."

The week wraps up with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Las Vegas Raiders on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 ET on ABC/ESPN).

So which games offer early betting appeal?

Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Ben Solak and Seth Walder looked at the early Week 11 odds and identified which ones are worth jumping on now before potential shifts later in the week.

Note: Odds at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook.

Cincinnati Bengals to cover +5.5 (-115) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Bowen: In their Week 7 matchup, a Bengals win, Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, plus the Steelers didn't have an answer for Ja'Marr Chase (16 receptions, 161 yards, 1 TD). In a game where Flacco will have to chase points and throw with volume because of a subpar Cincy defense, I'll take the perimeter matchups and the points.

Last week: Browns +2.5 at Jets (Jets won, 27-20)

Chicago Bears-Minnesota Vikings total points UNDER 48.5 (-115)

Maldonado: Minnesota's offense struggles to stay on schedule and converts just 32% of third downs, one of the lowest marks in the league and a killer for sustained scoring. That single data point shapes the entire game script. Chicago's offense moves methodically through the run and controlled passing, but the Bears aren't built for downfield bombs. Minnesota, meanwhile, is turnover-prone and overly reliant on Justin Jefferson to bail it out on long downs, a combo that can create stalled drives, more punts and stretched-out possessions. The rhythm points to a slower tempo and a total landing below the number.

Last week: Rams-49ers under 50.5 (Rams won, 42-26)

Miami Dolphins to cover -2.5 (-110) vs. Washington Commanders

Solak: I don't want to buy too heavily into this spot for the Dolphins, as they're coming off of a major upset win over a divisional opponent. But the Commanders' defense is in total disarray, and Miami has found more consistency on offense in the past month without Tyreek Hill. Tua Tagovailoa at home is also far more trustworthy than on the road. I expect this to get to three points by kickoff, so I'm happy to buy the hook now.

Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+600)

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