When will Liverpool win the league? Earliest, funniest, Arsenal guard of honour, Anfield decider

Let it never be said that we shy away from a hot take, because this one is positively molten: Liverpool are going to win the league.

We’ll give you a moment to come to terms with the sheer bravery of that statement. Done? Good. So now we’ve all accepted Liverpool are going to win the league the more interesting question becomes when are they going to win it, and which options might be the funniest because that, at the end of the day, is what matters isn’t it?

So let’s run through some possible scenarios.

First off our starting point. Liverpool have 70 points from 29 games, Arsenal 55 from 28. Maths fans will already have noted that means the most points Arsenal can finish with is 85, so 16 points is the magic number for Liverpool, whether those points are those they collect themselves or dropped by Arsenal. Or – and let’s face it this is overwhelmingly the most likely option – a combination of the above.

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April 12: The earliest Liverpool can win the Premier League

Obvious starting point is obvious. So hubristically arrogant have Liverpool become in this season’s so-called title so-called race that they aren’t even bothering to play any more league games for the rest of this month.

So this one relies heavily on some Arsenal nonsense that, while unlikely, absolutely cannot be ruled out at this time.

Arsenal still have two more Premier League games before Liverpool play again, so the speediest route to 16 points looks something like this:

* Arsenal lose to Chelsea on March 16

* Arsenal lose to Fulham on April 1

* Liverpool beat Everton on April 2

* Arsenal lose to Everton on April 5

* Liverpool beat Fulham on April 6

* Liverpool avoid defeat against Brentford on April 12

May 10-11: Liverpool win the Premier League against Arsenal

Among the many assumptions being made here, surely the safest is that Liverpool v Arsenal will be played on Sunday May 11 rather than Saturday May 10 but for now that is every bit as much conjecture as the idea that Liverpool have won the league. Technically, it might not be the case.

So what do Arsenal, and indeed Liverpool need to do (or not do) to keep the title race alive into the final few weeks so that Liverpool can claim it with victory against their closest ‘challengers’?

Obviously there are multiple routes that can lead us here, but the crucial numbers are that by May 10 or 11, Liverpool’s lead must be somewhere between four and nine points. Any less than four and they cannot quite get far enough ahead with two games still to play. More than nine and the game is already up.

For our scenario let’s try and get them six points clear. That’s the most fun one, because it would mean that a draw for Arsenal would just about keep them alive and a win would officially Make Things Interesting.

Getting the lead down to nine points is easy enough – it is entirely in Arsenal’s hands to do so. After that, we will need something from Liverpool.

It only needs something to happen to Liverpool in one game, as long as Arsenal win all of theirs in the meantime. Stop laughing, they might. No, seriously, they might: Arsenal are not having a lovely time of it currently in games not involving PSV, but if they can get home wins against Chelsea and Fulham they do have an okay-looking fixture list on the run-up to Anfield.

We’re going to keep things simple here and just rely here on the age-old truism that in derby games The Formbook Goes Out The Window even though it doesn’t in fact do that.

* Arsenal beat Chelsea on March 16

* Arsenal beat Fulham on April 1

* Liverpool lose to Everton on April 2

There, look. Piece of p*ss. Only taken us three games of football and we’ve already got the lead down to nine points with both teams having played the same number of games.

From here, all we’re asking is for Arsenal to also take maximum points against Everton, Brentford, Ipswich, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth (the three trickiest opponents on paper there are all at home, too) while Liverpool come a cropper against one of Fulham, West Ham, Leicester, Tottenham or Chelsea.

We don’t think we’re speaking out of turn here in suggesting Chelsea away is our likeliest route to success here.

So there you have it. All we need is for Arsenal to win seven straight games while Liverpool lose two out of six in a run that features four conspicuously bad football teams and we’ve got ourselves an Anfield title decider. Well not really a decider. Liverpool would probably still win the title even if they lose it. But that won’t stop the Super Sunday graphic-and-montage team and it’s not stopping us.

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May 3-4: Liverpool win title and Arsenal have to give them a guard of honour at Anfield the following week

We make no apologies for this being our favourite option of the lot. You can call it bias if you like, and in a way it is. We are enormously biased towards the funniest outcome in any given situation.

It is our unshakeable belief that the only way to save VAR is to stop poring over pixels in a futile bid to try and get every decision correct and instead to just go with whatever the team agrees is the funniest outcome from any VAR review.

And the funniest outcome for this title race is for Liverpool to wrap up the title the week before Arsenal’s visit so that Mikel Arteta’s team are obliged to either give them the standard guard of honour for newly-crowned champions or be harshly considered pricks if they refuse.

We’re not really sure why or how the guard of honour became a thing, but we’re glad it has and doubly glad that the seemingly reasonable “Why the f**k should we?” position is considered bad form. Again: because it’s funny. There really isn’t any good reason why Arsenal’s players should be forced to prostrate themselves before Liverpool’s in this way, but we don’t make the rules. We simply laugh at the outcome.

And the worry for Arsenal fans now is that this seems an alarmingly plausible occurrence. There are multiple combinations of extremely believable results that lead us to a situation where Liverpool start the weekend of May 3-4 with a lead of no more than 12 points and end it with a lead of at least 10, which is what we need.

Really, it looks a lot like the previous scenario. If Arsenal take maximum points from their next seven games (Chelsea, Fulham, Everton, Brentford, Ipswich, Palace, Bournemouth) then that would take them to 73 at the start and 76 by the end of that pre-Anfield weekend.

We would therefore need Liverpool to have no more than 85 points by the start of that weekend and at least 86 by the end of it.

Liverpool cannot get to more than 85 before that weekend, because they only have five games before and are currently on 70. Not even Arne Slot can spirit up more than 15 points in five games. He’s a fool to have even considered it.

If Arsenal and Liverpool win all their games between now and that first weekend in May, even an Arsenal win over Bournemouth will see Liverpool crowned if they avoid defeat at Chelsea.

And obviously the same applies if they simply match each other’s results whatever they may be; 12 is the lead we need Liverpool to have heading into that weekend, and that’s what it’ll be if Arsenal win their game in hand and then the two simply go stride for stride.

April 20: The earliest Liverpool can relinquish their Premier League lead

Fifteen points sounds like a heck of a lot of points, right? And it is. It is a very big lead. But again, thanks to Liverpool’s Icarus-sun-proximity decision not to play any more Premier League games for three weeks means it can actually evaporate quite quickly. In theory.

All that it needs is for Arsenal to win their next five games and for Liverpool to lose their next three, and all that requires is for each of us – up to and including Arsenal and Liverpool themselves – to simply forget everything we have learned and come to know during this season to date.

But the fact is that this sequence of results is technically possible.

* Arsenal beat Chelsea on March 16

* Arsenal beat Fulham on April 1

* Liverpool lose to Everton on April 2

* Arsenal beat Everton on April 5

* Liverpool lose to Fulham on April 6

* Arsenal beat Brentford on April 12

* Liverpool lose to West Ham on April 13

* Arsenal beat Ipswich on April 20

If all that happens the 15-goal swing Arsenal would also need in their favour is surely a formality, and would leave Liverpool heading to Leicester later on April 20 needing a result to reclaim top spot amid what would by now be an absolutely unstoppable wave of discourse and viral AFTV videos reaching numbers that would see questions raised in parliament.

May 10-11: Arsenal win the title at Anfield

It wouldn’t quite be 1989 all over again, but it is still just about within the realms of mathematical if not really footballing possibility that Arsenal could yet wrap up the title themselves with a win at Anfield.

We start as above, obviously, and then dollop a load more absolute nonsense on top to get this:

* Arsenal beat Chelsea on March 16

* Arsenal beat Fulham on April 1

* Liverpool lose to Everton on April 2

* Arsenal beat Everton on April 5

* Liverpool lose to Fulham on April 6

* Arsenal beat Brentford on April 12

* Liverpool lose to West Ham on April 13

* Arsenal beat Ipswich on April 20

* Liverpool lose to Leicester on April 20

* Arsenal beat Crystal Palace on April 26

* Liverpool lose to Tottenham on April 27

* Arsenal beat Bournemouth on May 3-4

* Liverpool lose to Chelsea on May 3-4

See? It’s extremely plausible. And if that extremely plausible sequence of results comes to pass, Arsenal will travel to Anfield with 76 points to Liverpool’s 70.

At which point all they need to do is beat a team that’s just lost to Leicester and Spurs for crying out loud and they’ll be nine points clear with two games remaining and the title in the bag. But they’ll probably bottle it, won’t they?

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