NFL 2025 Week 10 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Marvin Harrison Jr.'s new fantasy outlook

The fantasy football playoffs are less than a month away for most leagues. With every game being a make-or-break spot for playoff positioning, these are my favorite starts and biggest fades for Week 10.

▶ Quarterback

Start: Daniel Jones, Colts

Jones dropped his first stinker of the year, turning the ball over five times versus the Steelers. Luckily for fantasy managers, he escaped the day with 17.1 fantasy points. The bookies aren’t worried. Indy has the third-highest implied team total of the week at 27.5 points. Jones ranks seventh in EPA and eighth in CPOE despite the Week 9 implosion. He also juices the fantasy numbers with the occasional rushing touchdown. Jones has the third-most carries inside the five among quarterbacks, getting him to five rushing touchdowns this year.

Start: Matthew Stafford, Rams

The Rams are leaning into their passing game with top-five marks in pass rate over expected and neutral situation pace. They’re also airing it out more than almost any other team. Only Sam Darnold has a higher aDOT among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts. Stafford gets a San Francisco defense this week that ranks 25th in EPA per dropback allowed. Vegas is bought in on the Rams, assigning them a 27-point team total.

Sit: Michael Penix, Falcons

Penix has played better as of late, highlighted by a three-score game against the Patriots last Sunday. His resurgence might be taking a momentary pause this week with the Colts on tap in Germany. Indy ranks ninth in EPA per dropback allowed and just acquired Sauce Gardner from the Jets. It’s a matchup that could take the floor out from under Penix, who is a quarterback without much ceiling. He hasn’t finished better than the QB10 in a single week this year. Penix is averaging nine rushing yards per game and the Falcons aren’t willing to play into a shootout. Penix has attempted more than 40 passes just once in 2025.

Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

The Jags were without Travis Hunter last week and Brian Thomas Jr. left the game early. Liam Coen’s answer to the lack of weapons was to lean on his ground game. The Jags logged a -9% pass rate over expected.

His Week 10 opponent—the Texans—have faced a -2% PROE this year. That makes sense for a defense that leads the league in EPA per dropback allowed while sitting at 11th in run defense. The Texans have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing passers this year and there is nearly a two-point gap between them and the No. 2 team.

▶ Running Back

Start: Rico Dowdle, Panthers

The Panthers finally threw in the towel on giving Chuba Hubbard half of the carries in Week 9. Dowdle out-carried him 25-5 and ran for 130 yards plus two touchdowns. He was on the field for 74 percent of the team’s snaps and earned an 80 percent carry share. Both of those marks are within four percent of what he was at when Hubbard was inactive. Now Dowdle and the Panthers are 5.5-point favorites at home versus the Saints. He is pushing for a top-five fantasy ranking this week.

Start: Jaylen Warren, Steelers

Warren is back in the driver’s seat in Pittsburgh, seeing 78 percent of the Steelers’ carries over his past three starts. He had at least 15 touches in all three of those contests and has hit that mark in 5-of-7 games. His lowest touch total is 13. Most importantly, Warren has seen every inside-the-five carry for Pittsburgh in his past three games.

Sit: Tyrone Tracy, Giants

It took all of one game for Tracy to get overtaken by Devin Singletary as the Giants’ lead back. Singletary out-carried him 8-5 and out-snapped him 31-25 in Week 9. On a per-carry basis, Singletary is averaging more yards, missed tackles forced, and yards after contact than Tracy this year. Even if he doesn’t operate as the team’s RB1 versus the 49ers this week, he will see enough work to render Tracy obsolete.

Sit: Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Bill is an exciting back, but that only carries a player so far for fantasy purposes. His snap share fell below 50 percent for the first time since Week 4 on Sunday. He logged a 44 percent carry share, also his lowest mark since Week 4. Things are only going to go from bad to worse with Jayden Daniels out of the lineup.

As expected, Bill’s fantasy stock plummets when Marcus Mariota is forced to take over. He could save his fantasy stock with a role as a pass-catcher, but that hasn’t happened yet. JCM has caught multiple passes in two games this year and has a season-high of two receptions. In a potential blowout loss to the Lions this week, the Commanders aren’t likely to get their ground game rumbling, keeping JCM out of the RB3 ranks.

▶ Wide Receiver

Start: Zay Flowers

This time it counts for Flowers. Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup last week and was as efficient as ever, tossing four scores in a blowout win over the Dolphins. Flowers earned a healthy 24 percent target share but managed just 11.4 PPR points, watching all four of those passing touchdowns fall into the hands of other Ravens. Week 10 presents a great matchup for him to rebound. The Vikings use man coverage on three-quarters of their plays. Flowers leads the Ravens in yards per route run (2.4) and targets per route run (.24) when facing man coverage.

Start: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett—the Cardinals’ newly minted starter—has been more effective than Kyler Murray at throwing to nearly every level of the field. This is their completion rate and YPA broken down by target depth.

Behind LOSShortIntermediateDeepJacoby Brissett92.3% (3.0)83.3% (7.3)56.5% (10.8)57.1% (15.9)Kyler Murray97.4% (4.9)80.3% (5.7)48.1% (8.0)37.5% (11.1)

Naturally, Murray’s only advantage is throwing behind the line of scrimmage. Brissett also targets every area of the field at a higher rate than Murray, except for behind the line of scrimmage. To no one’s surprise, this stylistic shift fueled Marvin Harrison Jr. to a career-high in receptions last week.

Sit: Jameson Williams, Lions

Week 9 gave Williams drafters a reprieve from his stunningly quiet season on Sunday with a 4/66/1 receiving line. His usage, however, remained the same. Jamo was targeted on 13 percent of his routes and earned a 15 percent target share in total. Both marks were almost exactly in line with his season-long numbers. He ranks 57th in yards per route run (1.4) and 67th in targets per route run (.14) this year. Williams is struggling to hang with the other stars on the Detroit roster this year. In a game versus the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders that may not be that competitive, it’s hard to imagine there being enough passing volume for him to get home in Week 10.

Sit: Keenan Allen, Chargers

The Chargers are stocked with pass-catching weapons and someone has to be the odd man out. They have seemingly settled on Allen as that player. Oronde Gadsden began playing a full-time role four games ago. Over that stretch, Allen has run two routes when the team has fewer than three wide receivers on the field. It has gotten even worse over the past two weeks in particular. He has a 52 percent route and an 18 percent target share in his past two games. Because he doesn’t play in 12 or 21-personnel looks, Allen often finds himself on the bench in the red zone. He does not have a red zone or end zone target during this two-game slump.

▶ Tight End

Start: Dalton Kincaid, Bills

He’s good. That’s all there is to it. Kincaid leads all tight ends in yards per route run at 2.96. That would be the sixth-highest mark for a tight end (min. 100 routes) since 2015. He is second among all tight ends in targets per route run (.24) in 2025. He has an Open Score of 83 in ESPN’s player tracking data. That is the second-highest mark for a tight end since 2017. Kincaid doesn’t come close to running a full route rate in any week. It doesn’t matter when he is this efficient.

Start: Harold Fannin Jr. Browns

David Njoku was active before the Browns’ Week 9 bye and the team still made Fannin the focal point of their passing attack. He ran a route on 72 percent of the team’s dropbacks and logged a 23 percent target share. Fannin cashed in with a 6/62/1 receiving line while Njoku was limited to just 56 percent of the routes. No team has targeted their tight ends more than the Browns this year, creating enough room for Fannin to put up TE1 numbers even with Njoku pitching in as a TE2.

Sit: Mark Andrews, Ravens

The flipping between Andrews and Isaiah Likely hasn’t happened yet, but Likely is finally earning targets, putting a dent in Andrews’ role. Andrews ran a route on 63 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks in Week 9 and he earned a measly 10 percent target share. Likely was stuck at 48 percent of the routes but set a season-high in target share at 14 percent. Andrews saved his fantasy backers with two touchdowns last week. That appears to be his only path to fantasy relevance going forward.

Sit: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers

Freiermuth’s 28.1 points in week 7 were very fun. They were also a complete aberration. Muth ran a route on 71 percent of the Steelers’ dropbacks and earned an 18 percent target share in that game. He has since logged route rates of 41 and 51 percent with target shares of 13 and 12 percent. Week 7 was his only game with a target share over 13 percent. Feel free to send Freierimuth to the waiver wire at your earliest convenience.

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