Lions scouting report: Can Detroit repeat as NFC North champions against Vikings?

This is really happening huh? People joked back in May, “Imagine if it all comes down to Week 18“, “the NFL set up the schedule for this to happen.” What we all didn’t want to happen has now happened and it’s time to face the music. On Sunday, January 5, the Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings for two things:

The top seed in the NFC for the playoffs The NFC North divisional title

Whoever wins will have a week off before they jump into the playoffs, while the loser will have 14 wins and possibly not host a single playoff game in the postseason. This season is the best in Lions franchise history, and it could all still just mean they get in as the Wild Card team. Detroit is undefeated on the road this season, but the playoffs are a different animal. Having the familiarity of your stadium, field, routine, and having a loud crowd on your side, gives you a slight advantage no matter who is across from you.

Let’s look at the Vikings in our Week 18 scouting report for the 2024 season.

Minnesota Vikings

2024 season thus far (14-2)

Week 1: Defeated New York Giants, 28-6

Week 2: Defeated San Francisco 49ers, 23-17

Week 3: Defeated Houston Texans, 34-7

Week 4: Defeated Green Bay Packers, 31-29

Week 5: Defeated New York Jets, 23-17

Week 6: BYE

Week 7: Lost to Detroit Lions 31-29

Week 8: Lost to Los Angeles Rams, 30-20

Week 9: Defeated Indianapolis Colts, 21-13

Week 10: Defeated Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-7

Week 11: Defeated Tennessee Titans, 23-13

Week 12: Defeated Chicago Bears, 30-27 (OT)

Week 13: Defeated Arizona Cardinals, 23-22

Week 14: Defeated Atlanta Falcons, 42-21

Week 15: Defeated Chicago Bears, 30-12

Week 16: Defeated Seattle Seahawks, 27-24

Week 17: Defeated Green Bay Packers, 27-25

Stats:

9th in points scored, 4th in points allowed

7th in DVOA

14th in offensive DVOA (9th in pass DVOA, 20th in run DVOA)

3rd in defensive DVOA (1st pass DVOA, 3rd in run DVOA)

24th in special teams DVOA

After losing to the Lions, many (including myself) believed the Vikings would come back down to earth. That belief was even more strong after the Vikings lost the following week to the Rams and their starting left tackle went down for the year. We were all wrong. The Vikings bounced back from those two losses and haven’t looked back. While the Vikings have gotten lucky this season, winning nine one-score games, they have seemed to prove themselves as the season has gone on. People keep discounting them and they keep finding a way to win games, it’s that simple. In the end, as long as you score more points than the other team, does it matter how you got there?

Quarterback Sam Darnold’s early MVP hype did temper down, but he is still having a career season, throwing for a career-high 4,153 yards and 35 touchdowns. He has proven a lot of people wrong this season, and with him being on a one-year contract, a big question is looming in Minnesota on whether they should keep Darnold or if they should let him go and ride with McCarthy in 2025. It does help when you have the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson. He’s currently second in the NFL in receiving yards and tied for fifth in receiving touchdowns.

The rushing game got a small boost from running back Cam Akers, who was on the roster when the teams last played, but he didn’t play. Starting running back Aaron Jones has run for 1,093 yards this season after leaving Green Bay and has been a helpful addition to the backfield.

The defense was the biggest talking point about Minnesota back in Week 7, and understandably so. They were first in defensive DVOA overall. The defense has taken a little bit of a step back, falling to third in DVOA and third in rushing defense DVOA. Nothing has notably changed with their roster from the previous matchup, only getting linebacker Blake Cashman back from injury.

Linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard are the sack masters on the team, combining for 22.5. With the scheme Minnesota has on defense, expect them to blitz heavily and often. Cornerback Byron Murphy leads the team in interceptions with six, and the defense overall has gotten 31 turnovers this season (t-most): 22 interceptions (first), and eight fumble recoveries (t-10th). Detroit has to protect the football well if they are going to hold off Minnesota as if they don’t, things could get ugly quickly.

Jonathan Greenard my goodness pic.twitter.com/ZcO265xCZT — Phoenix (@dalvincookin) November 24, 2024

Injury notes

Key players ruled out: QB J.J. McCarthy (IR/knee), CB Mekhi Blackmon (IR/ACL), LT Christian Darrisaw (IR/ACL/MCL)

Key players to monitor: RB Aaron Jones (quad), DE Pat Jones II (knee)

Compared to the last game, the Vikings have a similar injury list. Starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw joined McCarthy and cornerback Mekhi Blackmon on the IR list as he tore his ACL and MCL in Week 8. Jones suffered a quad contusion against the Packers in Week 17, and head coach Kevin O’Connell said they held him out the rest of the game for precautionary reasons. On Monday, O’Connell commented saying Jones is doing well and should play on Sunday. He also said defensive end Pat Jones II has a chance to play on Sunday. He is third on the team in sacks with seven.

Biggest strength: Passing attack

With the Lions down their top cornerback in Carlton Davis III, the biggest strength they have to worry about now is the wide receivers and tight ends. Rookie Terrion Arnold and Amik Robertson will have their hands full with with Jefferson (1,479 yards, 10 TDs).

Justin Jefferson's one handed catch deserves all 3 all-22 angles pic.twitter.com/YnnDnSHRid — Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 30, 2024

The thing is, even if Jefferson is covered well, the Lions still have other players to worry about. Wide receivers Jordan Addison (875 yards, 9 TDs) and Jalen Nailor (361 yards, 6 TDs) have continued to show up in the passing game as well.

Then when you think it’s over with the receivers, an old friend returns to the place where it all started. Hockenson missed the last game between these two teams and has shot up the stat sheet in just the nine games he has played this season. He is averaging just under 50 yards per game, but hasn’t found the end zone yet. I’m sure he would love to in Detroit.

The Vikings are fourth in yards per pass attempt (8.3), have the fourth most passing yards in the NFL (4,213), and fifth most passing touchdowns (35). They are fifth in yards per catch at 12.2, and are explosive through the air, leading the NFL with 62 20+ yard passing plays, and are eighth in 40+ passing yard plays with 10. If this team is going to beat you, it’s through the air.

Biggest weakness: Ground attack

What was an issue the last time these teams played, continues to be an issue for Minnesota. Despite rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown in the first game, the Vikings still seem to struggle running the football against the rest of the NFL. While Aaron Jones has been playing well for Minnesota by getting over 1,000 yards and rushing for 4.5 yards per carry, the team overall is averaging just 4.0 YPC, tied for fourth worst in the NFL. Out of all of the playoff teams, only the Kansas City Chiefs have the same yards per carry, and the Rams are worse with a 3.9.

It’s not just carrying the football either, it’s finding the endzone. Minnesota has only nine rushing touchdowns this season, the fourth least in the NFL. When it comes to winning these big games, Minnesota has to rely on their passing attack more than their ground game, and that isn’t something you want when the postseason is looming near.

Key matchup: Lions secondary vs. Vikings wide receivers

The best way the Lions are going to win this game is if they can win on defense, mostly with their secondary. The defensive line will need to generate pressure for sure, but the secondary will be facing some tough tests no matter if the Lions can get to Darnold or not. Arnold will be challenged the rest of the way this season, and with the up-and-down season he has had, the hopes are he can make Sunday a positive checkmark for his rookie season.

The safety duo of Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch must have a big impact. Fellow safety Ifeatu Melifonwu can also provide some chaos with both his coverage and blitz abilities. His ability to do both can give Detroit a spark they didn’t have in the previous matchup. He also got the game-sealing interception against the Vikings last year to win the division title for Detroit, so we know the bright lights aren’t too much for him.

Vegas line for Sunday: Lions favored by 2.5 points

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