Liverpool transfer gamble overtakes Mbeumo to Manchester United as biggest transfer overpay

This summer has confirmed the existence of the Premier League tax beyond all doubt, with Manchester United unsurprisingly taking the expensive biscuit.

While no deal completed this summer can challenge the biggest overpays in Premier League history, plenty have already been made well in excess of a player’s reported market value.

A few factors go into that assessment. Age, performance level and experience are inevitably taken into account but the number of interested teams, general market trends and the reputation and status of the leagues the selling and buying clubs belong to can also heavily dictate that that market value.

And when it comes to those increasingly expensive intra-Premier League transfers there is basically a £10m surcharge applied before talks even commence.

It is no coincidence that seven of the ten biggest supposed overpays – going by the numbers crunched by the fine folk at Transfermarkt – involve a pair of Premier League clubs both trying to orchestrate PSR-friendly deals.

Nor that Real Madrid account for two of the others when they signed Alvaro Carreras and Franco Mastantuono, while Saudi side Al-Qadsiah apparently went overboard bringing in Mateo Retegui.

But those eight Premier League overpays, made by five of the Big Six plus Newcastle, do beg the question as to who has been most royally screwed.

Hugo Ekitike (Eintracht Frankfurt to Liverpool)

Fee: £69m rising to £79m

Transfermarkt valuation at the time: £82.9m

The Liverpool spin puts Ekitike firmly in the Haaland and Mbappe bracket in terms of potential at his age. And there is certainly an element of speculating to accumulate after committing such sums on a striker with 44 goals in 136 appearances

It could all go quite Darwin Nunez, with an enticing European reputation, add-ons destined to remain unfulfilled and the hints of beautiful chaos not quite enough to sustain a career at a competent club ultimately driven by numbers.

But it is notable that far less of the final value of the Ekitike signing is tied up in those performance-based clauses, while the guaranteed portion is higher too. Liverpool clearly feel he is the real thing who can be carefully nurtured, developed and moulded over time at Anfield.

That does not make it a certainty that Ekitike will come good – no such thing exists in the world of transfers – but everyone is at least on the same page this time at Liverpool.

Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford to Manchester United)

Fee: £65m rising to £71m

Transfermarkt valuation at the time: £47.7m

It is little wonder an ‘angry’ Manchester United ‘slammed’ Brentford once the deal to sign Mbeumo was finally completed 44 days after their opening bid.

That came in at around £45m plus £10m in add-ons, which the Bees were never going to accept but a testing of the waters was entirely necessary.

Once a second offer of £55m plus £7.5m in add-ons was rejected Ruben Amorim’s side had a choice to make: begrudgingly accept that various taxes from a Manchester United one to a general Premier League levy was going to be applied; or walk away from a deal for their priority target who they had already invested a large amount of the transfer window on pursuing.

There was at one stage an insistence that Manchester United would not be held to ransom but they excel at few things more than baulking at a fee while paying it.

This is their new transfer policy and it costs a pretty penny.

Anthony Elanga (Nottingham Forest to Newcastle)

Fee: £52m rising to £55m

Transfermarkt valuation at the time: £36.4m

Is Anthony Elanga worth £55m? Perhaps only to Newcastle but when the Magpies have understandably identified him as an ideal fit in their counter-attacking system then it hardly matters.

Newcastle had bids of £35m and £50m rejected for Elanga in summer 2024. After a season in which his six goals and 11 assists were crucial in helping secure European qualification for Nottingham Forest, a slight increase for their priority target was palatable.

And if Eddie Howe succeeds in protecting Alexander Isak from the clutches of Liverpool, he has a pair of international teammates who have already established a connection he can coach and nurture.

It is, for the first time since Sandro Tonali two years prior, a signing which represents an immediate first-team upgrade at St James’ Park.

As the most recent scorer of a Champions League knockout stage goal for Manchester United, Elanga even brings a degree of experience to a stage Newcastle are still adjusting to.

Mohammed Kudus (West Ham to Spurs)

Fee: £55m

Transfermarkt valuation at the time: £39m

There is always a quirk in the system and the idea Spurs overpaid for Kudus seems curious.

The deal was struck for £30m less than his release clause with a bitter rival, who had three years left on the contract of arguably their most gifted player.

But coming off the back of a season in which Kudus scored five goals, assisted three and suffered a stunning headloss against Spurs themselves resulting in a considerable ban, it could be argued that the Europa League winners paid a little over the odds.

Thomas Frank pinpointed Kudus as his main transfer target because of the “unpredictability” the Ghanaian can provide in attack at “almost the perfect age to perform and hit the next level”.

While moving a player with those characteristics across enemy lines was always going to require some intricate negotiations, Spurs pushed it through at a price both parties could sell as a win.

Noni Madueke (Chelsea to Arsenal)

Fee: £48.5m rising to £52m

Transfermarkt valuation at the time: £34.7m

If you listen to Arsenal supporters, which is medically inadvisable at the best of times, the Madueke signing is not only an egregious use of club funds but an act so deeply objectionable as to prompt petitions, protests and defaced murals.

That the line for those deeply ‘entitled’ fans is drawn at their favourite football club making what they deem to be an underwhelming signing, rather than the shameful handling of the Thomas Partey debacle, is a cripplingly damning indictment on the modern world.

But there is a sense that better value than Madueke was out there if Arsenal dared to look beyond Stamford Bridge.

The case for the defence would be that a 23-year-old England international already settled in London and familiar with the Premier League, who can play in and cover more than one position in a shallow attack, is worth stretching the budget for to mitigate any concerns over a player from a different country needing time to acclimatise.

Madueke offering a different skillset to break down those low blocks could also be crucial for an Arsenal side which has proven decidedly one-dimensional and unimaginative at times in their last three years of sustained Premier League title challenges.

The wider outlook would likely have been completely different had Madueke arrived after the long-awaited Proper Striker was captured but as long as a deal for Viktor Gyokeres is finally pushed over the line this summer and a Chelsea cast-off does not represent Arsenal’s biggest attacking addition, those fan frustrations should soon be drowned out.

Matheus Cunha (Wolves to Manchester United)

Fee: £62.5m

Transfermarkt valuation at the time: £52m

The spotlight which comes with a move to Manchester United cannot have surprised Cunha but being scapegoated by Newcastle for their lack of signings and blamed by Sporting for their valuation of Viktor Gyokeres seemed curious.

It is unknown precisely how far Manchester United would have gone in the bidding if Cunha wasn’t accompanied by a release clause which specified his price tag – or indeed if they would have targeted him at all without one.

A multi-functional 26-year-old Brazilian international forward with 42 goal contributions in 82 Premier League appearances does, after all, come with a premium.

And if all else fails, Manchester United will simply continue Cunha’s career trend of being sold for £18m profit every two years.

Joao Pedro (Brighton to Chelsea)

Fee: £55m rising to £60m

Transfermarkt valuation at the time: £43.3m

From the competition Chelsea faced for Pedro to the remuneration Brighton were due for their work in developing a former club-record £30m signing, the Brazilian was always going to cost a pretty penny.

Throw into the equation the fees Chelsea consistently pay for forwards in particular – and what is effectively the antithesis of a discount at their favourite shop as Brighton are still making them pay for the Moises Caicedo mess – and it could be suggested that the Blues paid over the odds.

But rarely if ever before has a player paid back their fee so quickly and specifically as with Pedro, whose first three Chelsea goals helped win the Club World Cup and earn Enzo Maresca’s side an extra £30m or so.

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