Answer to big Tigers question; Wayne’s brutal blow — Predicted NRL ladder after draw reveal

Fox Sports Lab has crunched the 2026 NRL draw to predict next season’s final ladder, and its bad news for the Rabbitohs and great news for arch rivals the Roosters.

On face value, it delivers another devastating blow to Newcastle Knights fans by forecasting a second consecutive wooden spoon, while Roosters are tipped to win the minor premiership.

However, the projection cannot take into account the major personnel changes that the Knights’ side have welcomed, meaning there’s every chance that Dylan Brown, Sandon Smith and company will lift Justin Holbrook’s side out of last place.

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The projection also cannot account for injuries that may occur during the season.

The top eight is set to be the same as last year, with the exception of Manly coming into the finals and the Warriors dropping out, while the Roosters and Sharks have knocked the Raiders and the Bulldogs out of the top four.

The Dolphins again miss the finals by the barest of margins, finishing ninth, while the Tigers’ NRL longest finals drought stretching back to 2011 drags on.

The Eels are not tipped to move up the ladder after finishing 11th last season, while the Rabbitohs are predicted to finish third last, despite a number of stars returning from injury.

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HOW DOES IT WORK?

Fox Sports Lab simulates the season 10,000 times over, based on each team’s final rating from last season and the draw for 2026.

The position percentage is based on the number of times in those simulations that a team finished in its designated ladder spot - meaning that the Roosters finished first 15.72 per cent of the time, while the Knights were last in 25.85 per cent of simulations.

The Roosters ran first more than two per cent more often than the Sharks, who are projected to finish second, while the Knights were over 10 percentage points ahead of the Titans for the wooden spoon position.

Without further ado - here is the predicted final ladder for NRL 2026, with the forecast chances of finishing first, plus the top-eight percentages.

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2026 PREDICTED NRL LADDER

1. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (15.72%) - top eight 76.90%

2. CRONULLA SHARKS (13.56%) - top eight 73.49%

3. MLBOURNE STORM (13.67%) - top eight 72.55%

4. BRISBANE BRONCOS (9.78%) - top eight 66.67%

5. PENRITH PANTHERS (9.73%) - top eight 65.65%

6. CANBERRA RAIDERS (9.13%) - top eight 64.09%

7. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (6.60%) - top eight 58.98%

8. MANLY SEA EAGLES (5.25%) - top eight 53.63%

9. DOLPHINS (4.26%) - top eight 48.41%

10. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (3.00%) - top eight 41.62%

11. PARRAMATTA EELS (2.89%) - top eight 40.20%

12. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (2.79%) - top eight 38.87%

13. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (1.04%) - top eight 25.54%

14. WESTS TIGERS (1.00%) - top eight 23.22%

15. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (0.76%) - top eight 22.98%

16. GOLD COAST TITANS (0.62%) - top eight 17.10%

17. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (0.20%) - top eight 10.10%

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