Monday Cal-culations: Poster boy to pressure king, hidden AFL handout, coach Joel?

In Monday Cal-culations, Callum Twomey takes a look at Bailey Smith's evolution and what the AFL's next memo to clubs should be about

Bailey Smith, Joel Jeffrey and Joel Selwood. Pictures: AFL Photos

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at Joel Selwood's future, a pivotal weekend for North Melbourne and Tasmania's next off-field target.

FROM FLASH TO FORCE

2025 for Bailey Smith isn't just a comeback. It's a career reset.

The former Bulldog-turned-Cat has made headlines for middle fingers, headbands, Bulldog bait, Instagram posts, crowd interactions and every time he does a post-game interview.

But the focus has to be on Smith's chances of a maiden All-Australian guernsey after yet another dominant game for Geelong on Sunday. Smith is no longer just a marketable force. He is unmissable on the field.

Four of his highest rated games of his career have come in his first eight appearances in the hoops - round one against Fremantle, round seven against Carlton, round five against Adelaide and round eight against Collingwood. Big game Bailey.

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Champion Data puts numbers to it. He is ranked the 17th best player in the AFL this year for Player Ratings, is third for disposals, eighth for groundball gets and is rated highly for score involvements (27th in the AFL) and tackles (22nd). He's gone from poster boy to pressure king and is ranked 13th for that stat in the competition.

This is the midfield production Smith threatened at the Dogs, with his minutes around the ball his initial frustration at the club before his knee injury and then trade request.

Smith was again a standout in Geelong's tight loss to GWS on Sunday, having 35 disposals, 10 tackles and four clearances. He was second only to Max Holmes for metres gained (710 to 704) in the game, and is the No.1 player in the AFL for taking the game forward. Geelong has found its metres monster. Without them both, the Cats would not have made it back into the game after an ordinary start.

Has Cotton On got an All-Australian range in the works?

Bailey Smith during Geelong's game against Collingwood in R8, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

NORTH'S BIG PUNT

NORTH Melbourne's punt on itself faces its biggest test this weekend.

The Roos' draft night trade last year in exchanging their 2025 first-round pick for No.27 (Matt Whitlock) and Richmond's second-round pick (currently No.21) was the biggest move of the draft. Currently North's pick, which belongs to Richmond, is No.2.

Whitlock has debuted, is showing promising signs and North's strategy was sound in adding a second first-round pick last year to their big tally of early recent picks. But currently the Roos are in second-last position and a game-and-a-half behind the Tigers, who clinched their third win of the year with Tom Brown's last-ditch tackle against the Eagles on Sunday.

Matt Whitlock ahead of North Melbourne's clash with Sydney in round four, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

This Sunday sees the Roos and Tigers face off at the MCG. There are big ladder and end-of-season implications riding on it.

The Tigers are already nearly out of wooden spoon territory, 12 points ahead of the winless West Coast, and North Melbourne can all but do the same if it can take the win over Richmond by moving to 10 points and forcing the Eagles to win at least three games in the back half of the year.

North had its chances to land one of the upsets of the season over last year's premier and managed to reduce Brisbane's weapons in Sunday's draw. Tristan Xerri (19 disposals, 12 clearances) is now in a two-man battle for the All-Australian ruck position with Max Gawn, Charlie Comben (21 disposals, nine marks) was unpassable in defence and George Wardlaw (third highest ranked midfielder in the game) is back to his impactful best. Alastair Clarkson will need them at that level again against a high-energy Tigers line-up.

THE HIDDEN AFL HANDOUT

THE BAD Boys versus the Hollywood Hawks.

Hawthorn hasn't been as Hollywood this season – Sam Mitchell described the game at three-quarter time against Melbourne as a "mess" – but they will need to up the swagger dose against Dimma's Darwin dominators on Thursday night.

Gold Coast continued a perfect run in Darwin since taking home games to the Top End in 2022, registering its seventh straight win there on Saturday against a mighty Western Bulldogs effort. The Suns' advantage at TIO Stadium as fast become as lethal as Hawthorn's edge in Tasmania in the Alastair Clarkson era.

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The Suns are in the top four with a game in hand and have built the half-back line that Damien Hardwick was craving when he got to the club. Additions Daniel Rioli and John Noble have been terrific, and Rioli was excellent on Saturday night, but Bodhi Uwland is a fighter, Wil Powell a gun and Joel Jeffrey has quietly become one of the game's best half-backs.

Jeffrey was viewed as a likely first-round pick but landed at the Suns for free as part of their draft concession package in 2020 when they were able to nab Academy selections as pre-listed players without matching bids (Jeffrey was a member of their Darwin zone). He has taken time to find his spot, but he is ranked as the seventh best general defender in the game this year.

All of the Suns' backs will be on high alert against the Hawks' mass of forward half weapons, including Dylan Moore, Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan and Connor MacDonald at ground level. As a group they are yet to hit the heights of 2024 so far this season, but the Hawks are enjoying their best start to a season (7-2) since 2013.

Meanwhile, Hardwick's Detroit Pistons-inspired Suns are turning themselves into a hard-nosed outfit. Finals surely beckon.

COACH JOEL?

WHETHER Scott Pendlebury pursues a media or coaching career at the end of his playing days is seen as a flashpoint in the game's ability to keep champion players becoming coaches. But one such case is already inside AFL House.

Geelong legend Joel Selwood is into his second season working with the AFL's football department, dealing with clubs and engaging with players as well as undertaking his media roles. But whether the game can lure back perhaps this century's most competitive player for a coaching tilt will be a significant test case for the coaching caper.

When Selwood retired after the 2022 Grand Final win over Sydney, clubs made enquiries about his interest in coaching positions. He held off with the view that time would come. He has continued to knock back other leadership roles and consultancy positions that have been put forward by clubs.

Those who know Selwood see his attributes as those of a future coach, albeit with an apprenticeship. They know the leadership, temperament, character, game nous and aura he had as a player would transition as a senior coach-in-waiting – if he wanted.

Joel Selwood and Tom Stewart ahead of a match at GMHBA Stadium on April 4, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

That's the caveat. If he wanted. Coming from the AFL's most successful club this century gives Selwood first-hand knowledge of a strong program, but he is also armed with an insight on the role's demands, through his AFL role dealing with clubs as well as his younger brother Scott, a highly regarded assistant at Collingwood.

Selwood would have expected the game, and his own competitive streak, to have dragged him back into a club position by now. But, with a young family, that would take an adjustment for the 36-year-old to step into the pressure-cooker of coaching.

As coaches publicly push for ways to better protect and reward their fraternity, the all-encompassing nature of the job and accompanying scrutiny is being closely considered by the next wave of players-turned-coaches. It will be the same decision that faces other greats like Pendlebury, Patrick Dangerfield, Travis Boak, Steele Sidebottom and more veterans in coming years once they transition from extraordinary careers into their next phases.

Cats coach Chris Scott once said he'd advise his brother Brad to not get back into senior coaching, before he returned to take the Bombers job. You wonder what Scott would tell his 2022 premiership captain if the coaching bug stirs again.

TASSIE'S OBVIOUS TARGET

WITH its list and recruiting manager roles now locked in, Tasmania's next key appointment is its football boss. Chris Davies should be the No.1 target.

Amidst the Willie Rioli furore last week, the Port Adelaide football manager kept a cool head, calmly facing the media on several occasions to detail a complex situation he said had deep-seated roots. The Power found the fine line of disapproving Rioli's behaviour but supporting their player whilst also shining a light on the issues still faced by Indigenous players in the game. It came on the eve of Sir Doug Nicholls Round starting this week.

Chris Davies during the Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period at Marvel Stadium on October 7, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos

Davies has been at the Power for a decade and been targeted many times before by rivals, including Collingwood in its search for a football boss last off-season. Ultimately he stayed at Alberton Oval and is shepherding through Port's coaching succession plan from Ken Hinkley to Josh Carr as the club goes through a period of change.

The next step for Davies, known as 'Chief' at Port, might be as a club CEO, and Richmond was linked last year. But Tasmania, who have advertised for a football operations role, should have Davies' name circled to be their head of footy.

THE NEXT AFL MEMO ...

CREDIT to Tom De Koning. In the week of the TDK Cup, he fronted up and owned the narrative of his St Kilda or Carlton 'De Cision' by doing more media and he has been available throughout the year. But his accessibility is not the case across the board.

The AFL rightfully reminded clubs last week of the need to provide up-to-date and accurate injury lists. Its next memo should be about media access to players.

Tom De Koning poses for a photo ahead of the 2025 AFL season. Picture: AFL Photos

The most recent players' Collective Bargaining Agreement says: "Each club will make available its playing group, including substitutes, from the previous round to accredited media for a minimum of 45 minutes within two days of a match".

But the reality is the best, most interesting, popular and high-profile players are regularly and weekly deemed unavailable for interviews across the competition.

Supporters deserve to hear from them more often and they would inform the game's discourse too.

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