Staff Picks: Notre Dame vs. Navy

TIM O'MALLEY (SENIOR EDITOR)

It's a theory we first offered in 2018:

"Yeah…but GOOD Notre Dame teams don't lose to Navy."

And why do GOOD Notre Dame teams beat Navy?

They Just Keep Scoring.

Notre Dame's point totals in its last 15 games vs. Navy:

— Losses: 21, 17, 27

— Wins: 56, 50, 38, 49, 41, 24 (24-17), 44, 52, 34 (34-6), 35 (35-32), 42, and 51

Concerns:

(1) Weather, but a wet ball hurts Navy more

(2) The absence of starting defensive tackles Gabriel Rubio (knee) and Donovan Hinish (concussion)—both standouts defending the option.

(3) The absence of Billy Schrauth (knee) and Ashton Craig (knee/season) in the middle of an Irish offensive line set to face a uniquely talented and powerful nose guard in Navy's Landon Robinson.

(4) A *first-time defensive coordinator vs. the Mids, though he did direct a national title defensive for Ohio State against the Mids in 2014.

(5) Field Goals and Extra Points (It's like middle school all over again!)

But this is a different era of Notre Dame Football. The collective talent advantage not only remains immeasurable, but is a collective prepared for Navy by its head coach, both mentally and physically.

And this is more than a GOOD Notre Dame team. History is your guide.

Notre Dame 36, Navy 16

JOHN BRICE (Football Scoop)

Weather might now be a factor, but the biggest element? It's Notre Dame's superior ability on both sides of the ball, playing under the lights of Notre Dame Stadium and against a Navy team that presents some unique offensive challenges but is atrocious thus far on defense.

The Mids are among the worst-tackling teams in all of college football, and they aren't particularly strong against the pass or against potent offenses.

Notre Dame will need to have some defenders step up quickly into increased roles and, as noted, against a bit of an unorthodox offense. But Drayk Bowen is playing the best ball of his life. Luke Talich is the unheralded MVP of the defense.

The Irish score plenty, but I'll deviate from my in-the-40s trend this week.

Notre Dame 38, Navy 14

DREW MENTOCK (Writer & Digital Media Manager)

Notre Dame and Navy will meet for the 98th time on Saturday. In all those matchups, the Midshipmen have only 13 victories in the series.

They won't add to that total this weekend.

Navy enters the game with a 7-1 record, but the pass defense has been exceptionally pedestrian this season. Opposing quarterbacks are producing a 143.74 passer rating (105th out of 136 FBS programs) while completing 8.0 yards per attempt (114th) and 253.8 yards per game (115th).

That should bode well for CJ Carr, who's fourth nationally with a 170.61 passing efficiency and 9.8 yards per attempt. The 2025 edition of the Notre Dame rush defense is also the best since at least 2004, with the Irish holding opponents to 2.85 yards per rush (12th) and 89.63 yards per game (12th).

Those averages will likely increase this weekend against Navy's top-ranked rush offense, but not enough for the Midshipmen to keep up as Notre Dame passes for more than 300 yards and scores at least five touchdowns in a comfortable win.

Notre Dame 38, Navy 20

ERIC THOMAS (Recruiting Reporter)

Headed into South Bend on Saturday evening, along with the rain, will be the No. 1 most efficient rushing offense nationally, the Mids averaging 6.3 yards per carry this fall. There to meet them will be an Irish defense that sits just outside the Top 10 in yards per carry allowed, at 2.8 yards per carry.

This modern Navy offense is a significant evolution of options past, with the Midshipmen throwing the ball on nearly 25 percent of their offensive snaps. Despite the marked uptick in passing volume, the Navy offense is No. 2 nationally in yards per pass at 10.9, sitting one spot ahead of Notre Dame at 9.9 yards per pass.

The Navy defense is not really special in any one category, although they are Top 50 in opposing yards allowed per rush at 3.9 and opposing rush yards per game at 142.1.

Outside of those categories, that unit becomes much more exploitable on paper, especially through the air. The rain could dampen that advantage for the Fighting Irish, but if the skies are clear enough that aerial activity can commence, look out for the Notre Dame slot receivers to have a good day against out-gunned Navy linebackers in coverage.

Key Predictions:

- Jadarian Price has a bounce-back game after his goal-line fumble last week, with over 100 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

- Jeremiyah Love with one touchdown and one successful hurdle, each.

- Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will have the (almost) annual "linebacker who dominates Navy" performance, with over 8.5 tackles and 1.5 tackles for a loss.

- Navy won't be giving the ball away like last year, but the Irish will still notch at least two turnovers, including a pick by Adon Shuler.

-Eager to get the kicking issues sorted, the Irish attempt two field goals, making one.

Notre Dame 38, Navy 14

BRYAN AULT (Recruiting Reporter)

It was a rough-and-tumble outing for Notre Dame against one-win Boston College, specifically on offense. The scoreless first quarter had Irish fans jittery in what was expected to be a dominant Notre Dame victory. Navy head coach Brian Newberry will have his Midshipmen ready to play.

Notre Dame cannot afford to get in a slow-starting slog this week: it's best to come out firing on offense, getting up early and swinging momentum in the opening quarter. Navy's offense can put points on the board: they have scored more than 32 points in six of their victories. Last week's loss to North Texas was a bit of an outlier.

The offense revolves around Blake Horvath – a quarterback I scouted in Ohio during his high school career. Horvath is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback: against Air Force, he was 20-of-26 for 339 yards and three touchdowns, and added 17 carries for 140 yards on the ground. Last week, Horvath was limited to just 80 yards passing, but still managed a 119- yard game on the ground.

Notre Dame 35, Navy 20

Click here to read article