WTA Finals Day 4 Preview: Sabalenka, Pegula set for high-stakes rematch

The Stefanie Graf and Liezel Huber groups take center stage once again on Tuesday in Day 4 of the WTA Finals Riyadh.

A rematch of the 2024 US Open singles final between Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula highlights the schedule, while Coco Gauff and Jasmine Paolini eye the win column in their seventh career meeting.

In doubles play, defending doubles champions Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe battle their opponents from last year’s final, Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend. Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider cap off the evening with a must-win match against Timea Babos and Luisa Stefani.

Below is the order of play, advancement scenarios, match times and breakdowns of the four matches scheduled for Tuesday.

Stefanie Graf Group advancement scenarios

If Sabalenka wins in straight sets:

•Sabalenka advances (position TBD)

If Sabalenka and Paolini win:

•Sabalenka advances as group winner

•Gauff is eliminated

•Pegula and Paolini play for second semifinal spot on Thursday

If Pegula and Gauff win:

•Pegula advances as group winner

•Paolini is eliminated

•Sabalenka and Gauff play for second semifinal spot on Thursday

If Paolini loses in straight sets, she will be eliminated. If there's any other combination of results, advancement will be determined by the final matches on Thursday.

Day 4 matchups

Note: All matches are local time.

Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (2) vs. Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe (3) -- 3 p.m.

Tuesday's doubles slate opens with a rematch of the 2025 US Open final and 2024 WTA Finals championship. In Flushing Meadows in September, Dabrowski and Routliffe defeated top-seeded Siniakova and Townsend 6-4, 6-4, winning the Open for the second time in three years.

Last year, Dabrowski and Routliffe lifted the Martina Navratilova trophy in Riyadh following a 7-5, 6-3 win at the WTA Finals. Siniakova and Townsend are looking to defeat the defending champions for the first time since the 2024 Wimbledon final.

Coco Gauff (3) vs. Jasmine Paolini (8) -- Not before 5 p.m.

Head to Head: Tied 3-3

The Case for Gauff: This year’s defending champion knows what it takes to beat Paolini. Gauff most recently defeated Paolini 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinals of Wuhan a few weeks ago. Gauff ultimately won the title without dropping a set.

Gauff had a competitive opening match vs. Pegula -- it was the lone singles match to go three sets over the first two days of play -- but Pegula regrouped in the third to secure the win. There were many self-inflicted wounds by Gauff in the loss, including 45 unforced errors on her forehand, but if she limits them against Paolini, she should get it done.

The Case for Paolini: Her three career wins over Gauff have all come this year -- in Cincinnati, Stuttgart and Rome, where Paolini became the first Italian woman to win the title there in four decades. The commonality? Paolini broke Gauff’s serve at least five times in all three.

Gauff’s Achilles heel in 2025 has been the serve, and her 17 double faults against Pegula reflected that. That’s where Paolini can take advantage. In Cincinnati and Rome, respectively, Paolini won 54% and 45% of points on Gauff’s second serve.

Paolini will also need to hold her own serve. In the loss in Wuhan, Paolini saved just two of nine break points, and limiting those opportunities will be the key to defeating the Roland Garros champion.

Aryna Sabalenka (1) vs. Jessica Pegula (5) -- Not before 6:30 p.m.

Head to Head: Sabalenka leads 8-3

The Case for Sabalenka: The year-end No. 1 wasted no time in her opening match, and quincentennial career match, taking down Paolini 6-3, 6-1 in just 70 minutes. Sabalenka’s backhand prowess highlighted many of her 24 winners, and a consistent serve -- 11 aces to zero double faults -- had the US Open champion in cruise control.

“I have to win five matches if I want to win the title,” Sabalenka said afterward. “So, I’m just going at it as if every time is the last time, and I’m just trying to bring my best tennis and fight for every point.”

Despite falling to Pegula in Wuhan, Sabalenka won their previous two meetings in 2025, in the Miami final and the US Open semifinals.

The Case for Pegula: Pegula took down Sabalenka in three sets in the Wuhan semifinals, taking seven of 12 break points and saving nine of Sabalenka’s 17 opportunities. The victory marked the 31-year-old’s first win over Sabalenka since the group stage of the 2023 WTA Finals in Cancun, where Pegula advanced to the final.

Pegula's co-coach Mark Knowles said Pegula is playing the best tennis of her career, and another signature win over top-seeded Sabalenka would have the Buffalo native in prime position to advance following her gritty win over Gauff.

Since the reintroduction of the round-robin format in 2003, Pegula can become the third player -- joining Maria Sharapova and Vera Zvonareva -- to have multiple wins over the No. 1 seed at the WTA Finals.

Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider (5) vs. Timea Babos and Luisa Stefani (7)

These teams have only ever met once, a 4-6, 6-4 [10-5] win for Babos-Stefani in the first round of Berlin earlier this year. But the stakes are much higher in Riyadh. Both teams are coming off opening-round losses and hoping to avoid an 0-2 start, which would all but end their hopes of getting out of the group stage.

Babos and Stefani lost to last year’s runner-up, Siniakova and Townsend, 6-2, 3-6 [10-6]. Andreeva and Shnaider lost in straight sets to Dabrowski and Routliffe.

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