LA 2028 could miss out on India vs. Pakistan, cricket’s biggest rivalry

Olympic cricket set for high-stakes comeback

Cricket’s long-awaited return to the Olympic Games is expected to be one of the marquee attractions at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics. Yet, the sport’s most-watched rivalry — India versus Pakistan — is increasingly unlikely to feature, with the qualification structure making such a matchup uncertain.

According to a recent report from the Times of India, and as reported by Forbes earlier, the International Cricket Council (ICC) has finalized how the participating nations will be determined. Only six teams will compete in each of the men’s and women’s T20 tournaments — a format designed to ensure regional representation rather than purely rankings-based selection.

From rankings to regions: how qualification will work

The ICC had initially proposed using its T20I rankings to determine which teams would qualify. However, as reported by TimesofIndia.com on November 8, that plan has been shelved in favor of a geographically balanced model. Under the new system, the top-ranked team from each region — Asia, Europe, Africa, Oceania, and the Americas — will gain direct entry, while the final spot will be decided through a global qualifying tournament.

“There have been discussions around the participation of teams, and it has been decided that the six teams will come through the top-ranked team from each region/continent, while the sixth comes from the global qualifier. The details will be shared by the ICC in due course, but the roadmap has more or less been frozen,” said a veteran administrator who was part of the ICC meeting in Dubai, quoted by The Times of India.

This structure means India is expected to secure the automatic Asian berth based on its current ranking, while Pakistan would need to qualify via the global playoff unless their ranking surpasses India’s before the cut-off.

Host nation’s uncertainty and regional implications

The Americas region adds another layer of intrigue. Traditionally, Olympic hosts receive automatic qualification, but it remains unclear whether that slot will go to the United States or the West Indies – or one of the nations comprising the West Indies. If the host spot is not guaranteed, the USA — one of cricket’s fastest-growing markets — could also miss out on participating in its own Olympic Games.

The format also limits opportunities for other cricketing nations in regions with multiple competitive teams. With only one spot per continent, traditional powerhouses like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh face steep odds of direct entry from Asia.

ICC confirms six-team Olympic structure

The ICC’s official release underscored the importance of the 2028 Olympics to cricket’s long-term global ambitions and its partnership with the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

“The Board reviewed the ICC’s ongoing engagement with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games (LA28), as cricket deepens its footprint in the global multisport landscape. At LA28, both the men’s and women’s T20 events will feature six teams each, comprising 28 matches in total,” the ICC said in its statement.

The ICC Board’s decision, reached during recent meetings in Dubai, signals a definitive roadmap for cricket’s Olympic comeback after more than a century.

The India–Pakistan question remains unresolved

Despite global anticipation, there is no guarantee of an India–Pakistan clash even if both nations qualify. Group distributions and knockout rounds will determine whether the historic rivals face each other at all.

For Pakistan, qualification could depend on both rankings and their performance in the global playoff, making their participation far from assured. The same uncertainty extends to the USA, which may find itself hosting an Olympic cricket event without a home team involved.

A global opportunity with uncertain rivalries

Cricket’s inclusion at LA28 marks a defining moment for the sport’s expansion into the American market. However, the regional qualification system — while promoting inclusivity — may also deprive the tournament of its most commercially valuable fixture.

As the countdown to the Los Angeles Olympics begins, fans worldwide will watch closely to see whether the world’s biggest cricket rivalry, India versus Pakistan, can find its way under the Olympic spotlight — or whether this historic face-off will have to wait for another stage.

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