AFL 2025, Power Rankings after Round 16

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Everyone knows there’s a top nine and a bottom nine this season - and the contenders all play pretenders this weekend. So who’s most at risk of an upset?

See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 16 below!

FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every match of every round in the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE in 4K, with no ad-breaks during play. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1. Limited-time offer.

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEST.

1. COLLINGWOOD (13-2, 135.8%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def West Coast by 29 pts

It’s always tricky to tell at this time of year whether a top team is deliberately cruising through some easier games, or actually losing form. In Sydney’s case last year, they seemed to recover well from their post-bye skid by winning five straight games... until the Grand Final when it all fell apart. Hopefully for the Magpies’ sake they don’t need to wait that long to figure out if their recent wobbles are for real or not. The important thing is they’re still winning, but they’ve genuinely been challenged by Melbourne, St Kilda and West Coast over the last month, which is at least slightly concerning. Once they play a real contender again we’ll learn a lot more about them. But this week they play Carlton.

This week: Carlton at the MCG, Friday 7:20pm

McRae still chasing improvements | 04:16

2. BRISBANE LIONS (10-4-1, 113.4%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, BYE

The Lions had the bye, and unfortunately saw their ladder lead over the rest of the top eight closed as the contenders all won their Round 16 games. Full credit to Brisbane for doing as well as they have against a tricky fixture; compare their draw to Geelong and it’s night and day for two teams who were split by barely anything in a prelim 12 months ago! That draw against North Melbourne is currently saving the Lions from being 5th instead, but they can’t afford many slips on the run home. The next two weeks are critical; the Lions have only dropped six points in games against the bottom nine this season, and they need to keep that strong record going by beating Port Adelaide and Carlton (away). It will give them breathing room as their already-hard fixture gets even harder in the last six weeks of the season.

This week: Port Adelaide at the Gabba, Saturday 7:35pm

Wildcard Round - 'Something to play for' | 01:39

3. GEELONG (10-5, 127.5%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, BYE

The Cats had the bye, and hopefully spent it practising their goalkicking. With by far the easiest remaining draw in the AFL, Chris Scott’s side needs to bank wins and build percentage against strugglers like Richmond. It’s not impossible for them to catch Adelaide’s AFL-best mark of 139.8% - the gap is around 100 extra points conceded - and that could really matter if they and the Crows end up fighting each other for the second home qualifying final spot. Also, you know, don’t lose. While we find it hard to imagine a world where the Cats would drop a game to the current version of Richmond at home, the two games after that against GWS and St Kilda are rematches of losses earlier this year...

This week: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

Lynch faces "Biggest Suspension of 2025" | 05:33

4. ADELAIDE CROWS (10-5, 139.8%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def Richmond by 68 pts

Best percentage in the comp! Predicted to finish third in our Run Home column! Five more games at Adelaide Oval plus road trips to face North and West Coast in the next eight weeks! But we know Crows fans are staying calm and if anything, feeling worried that everything is going to fall apart somehow; that’s just how footy fandom works. There’s still plenty of time left for some rollercoaster results - they feel kinda due for a weird loss against a worse team that makes everyone question them for a week - but with only four wins required to clinch a finals spot we’re backing the Crows. And we hope they make it too; we love seeing fresh faces in the finals and they deserve to be rewarded for playing exciting footy, much like the Suns. There’s a chance Adelaide will be a contender for the rest of the decade, and as neutral fans we may be sick of them by 2027, so let’s enjoy being on the bandwagon while we can.

This week: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3:15pm

How will the ladder finish in 2025? | 01:16

5. HAWTHORN (10-5, 118.4%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def North Melbourne by 85 pts

You could argue Saturday was the first time this year’s Hawks really felt like last year’s Hawks, absolutely dominating a bad team and putting up a cricket score to build their percentage. It helped a lot in that sense, pulling them well ahead of Fremantle and GWS, and that could matter greatly if the Hawks end up stuck on 13 wins. We’re not going to declare them back as a true flag contender because it’s just one game, but you could really see that potential within them for the first time in a while. They have perhaps the widest range of possible outcomes in this finals race - we can absolutely see Hawthorn winning the flag if everything goes right, but we wouldn’t be shocked if they missed the finals entirely either. They just need to get to September first and games like this week are critical so they can keep banking wins. They should be aiming to go 3-1, minimum, over the next month against the Saints, Dockers (away), Power (Tassie) and Blues.

This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

'He's going to haunt North Melbourne' | 01:01

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-6, 131.5%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Sydney by 9 pts

It was nice to see the Bulldogs on the other end of an expected score game for once. They’re usually the team losing a close one when the other team kicks straighter than it should have; against Sydney, the Dogs won 105-96 when expected score says they should’ve lost 86-90. That’s in the category of ‘fortunate but we have no problem with the result analytically’, for what it’s worth. Luke Beveridge’s side is a win out of fourth, and percentage out of third, and if we know anything about them they can thrash bad teams - so don’t rule out the potential of them catching Adelaide’s AFL-leading figure of 139.8%. The top-four is well and truly on here... though so is them missing the eight in typically late-season Dogs fashion.

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Bulldogs, Swans battle out an epic! | 02:30

7. GWS GIANTS (9-6, 107.6%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, BYE

The Giants had the bye, and as expected return to action finding themselves outside the top eight. We had them predicted to miss the finals in the first instalment of The Run Home for the year, but they can very easily prove us wrong - mostly because there’s barely one win between our teams projected to finish 3rd (Adelaide) and 9th (GWS). Their percentage is a problem but the Giants have a pretty clear path to 13 wins with games against 18th, 13th, 16th and 15th still to come. They’d probably still need to find one more win to clinch a September spot but that’s do-able. So even though we’re tipping them to miss the eight, they might have the smallest chance of completely falling over and finishing with 11 or 12 wins, which is pretty handy in a tight finals race.

This week: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:20pm

SCG pitch 'unacceptable and dangerous' | 01:16

8. FREMANTLE (10-5, 110.4%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def St Kilda by 12pts

It’s almost like the AFL scripted it - as the run home begins, and we return to a full nine-game round of footy, every game sees a top nine team facing a bottom nine team. The Dockers are the most at risk of losing but we’d hardly even call it an upset, since Sydney is looking pretty dangerous right now and it’s on the road. (Also they’re the betting underdogs.) This is Freo’s problem; even after a six-game winning streak they’ve got a pretty tough remaining fixture and they need to find a couple of wins in their trickier games to clinch a spot in September. There’s a very real chance they fall out of the top eight over the next few weeks, facing Sydney, Hawthorn and Collingwood; but if they can somehow cling onto their spot until Round 20’s Derby, when the fixture eases up, they’ll be in a great position. Just don’t panic if they suddenly look like the team most in danger — we are warning you ahead of time.

This week: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Sunday 1:10pm

Longmuir all praise for Freo's grit | 13:46

9. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-5, 120.3%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, def Melbourne by 19 pts

That was a pretty vital win over the Demons on Saturday; it feels like the team that finishes ninth will be the side that drops one too many games against the bottom nine. So the Suns need to take care of business against the injury-ravaged Bombers this week before a tough three games against the Magpies, Crows and Lions. Do we need to be a bit worried about their defence though? The Suns’ attack is brilliant, averaging a goal under 100 points a week, but they keep getting stuck in shootouts. It’s great for the neutral fan at least, they’re a very watchable club, and we’re super-keen to see how they go in September if they get there. They just feel... risky? If you know what we mean?

This week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 12:35pm

May high shot ignites all-team MELEE | 01:24

10. SYDNEY SWANS (6-9, 92.1%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 9 pts

They’ve basically just run out of time. The Swans finally look something like the team they should’ve been all season, but injuries have put them too far behind the eight-ball to actually play finals, unless something crazy happens over the next eight weeks. They will absolutely shape the finals though; a win over Fremantle this week, or GWS in Round 20, might knock that team out of the eight while upsetting Brisbane (Round 22) or Geelong (Round 23) could end their top-four hopes. And if the Swans can keep their current, improved form up there’ll be room for optimism about Dean Cox heading into 2026 when they could bounce back with a much cleaner bill of health.

This week: Fremantle at the SCG, Sunday 1:10pm

Joey slams Carlton's "unreliable five" | 03:26

11. PORT ADELAIDE (7-8, 88.6%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def Carlton by 50 pts

Congrats to the Power on their big win in the ‘Which Coach Will Be Under Major Pressure Next Week’ Cup! Ken Hinkley instead gets to enjoy at least a couple more weeks without questions about the handover. Their season should be pretty simple from here; Port will lose a few more games by big margins, because they’ve got a bunch of games left against top teams. But they’ll work their way to between 10-12 wins and be almost exactly where a lot of people had them in the pre-season, roughly the AFL’s 10th-best team. They are what we thought they were.

This week: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Saturday 7:35pm

UNBELIEVABLE! Marshall's GOTY contender | 00:25

12. MELBOURNE (5-10, 86.7%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to Gold Coast by 19 pts

This week: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Sunday 3:15pm

13. ST KILDA (5-10, 86.2%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Fremantle by 12 pts

This week: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

These two clubs feel very similar right now. They’re stuck in no man’s land on the ladder, only mathematically in finals contention but not bad enough to be anywhere near the wooden spoon race. They were both valiant in defeat on the road against bottom-half-of-the-eight teams on the weekend. They’re both better than their records suggest, able to beat true contenders on their day (as seen in the Dees’ win over Brisbane, and the Saints’ win over Geelong). And you also have to wonder what both teams’ 2026 seasons look like because there are no obvious paths to becoming true top-eight contenders again, though both have a good core of young, highly-drafted talent.

Voss' 'Carlton Horror Show' continues | 06:58

14. CARLTON (6-9, 100.4%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to Port Adelaide by 50 pts

We don’t really think the Blues are bad enough to warrant this ranking but the vibes are just so, so off. Michael Voss isn’t some masterful strategic coach but you could always trust his teams to bring a level of effort - that seems to have evaporated over the past fortnight. For a few years Carlton’s critics have always said “is the list really as good as everyone says?” and defenders have always been able to point to their top-end stars - not this year though. The big names aren’t performing, though neither are the Blues’ middle and lower-tier players, who have always been slightly overrated just because they play for a big Victorian club and more people know their names. Things could easily spiral out of control here and even though Carlton’s higher-ups are less Carlton-y than the old days, and much less likely to just sack the coach out of frustration, but you never know.

This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:20pm

Lewis' BOLD call for Blues Cripps trade | 01:15

15. NORTH MELBOURNE (4-10-1, 78.5%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Hawthorn by 85 pts

This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

16. ESSENDON (6-8, 77.5%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, BYE

This week: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 12:35pm

The Bombers had the bye and the Kangaroos got demolished, so why are North still ranked above Essendon? Because we’re looking at more than just one week of footy... and to be fair, Essendon found a way to have a bad weekend without even playing, because they copped even more injuries. We would be keen to see another game between these two sides in the near future to figure out who’s actually better; instead we’ll have to compare them based on matching opponents... they both play the Bulldogs within the next month, maybe whichever one of them doesn’t lose by a million points gets locked into 15th?

Unselfish Reid typifies Eagles growth? | 01:55

17. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-14, 65.2%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Collingwood by 29 pts

This week: GWS Giants at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:20pm

18. RICHMOND (3-12, 64.8%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Adelaide by 68 pts

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:15pm

We simply had to put the Eagles above the Tigers this week. Andrew McQualter’s side has actually passed his old club on percentage, and they’ve looked genuinely improved over their last four games, challenging Geelong and Collingwood for large periods. In contrast Richmond has been smashed for three straight weeks and the most notable thing in any of those games was Tom Lynch punching someone in the head. (We know he was being held a lot. Still bad!) That Round 19 game at Optus Stadium between these two sides is looking very interesting, and the good news for the Eagles is they can afford to win it without giving up Pick 1!

Click here to read article