Cal-culations: Jeff keeping low profile, Zach hellbent on Hawks, will Suns take trade plunge?

AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at the dominance of the 'Big Four', the trade gambles the semi-final losers should consider and more in Monday Cal-culations

AFL'S BIG FOUR AT IT AGAIN

JEFF Kennett was keen to keep things quiet when contacted by AFL.com.au on Sunday. No bold predictions, no headlines and certainly no curses.

"I'm keeping a low profile this week. I am playing it very safe, I am going to hibernate this week," he said.

The Kennett Curse, of course, was the extraordinary storyline of the Geelong and Hawthorn battles that followed the Cats' shock 2008 Grand Final loss to the Hawks, when then Hawks president Kennett questioned Geelong's mental resilience heading into the following season.

The Cats then beat the Hawks in 11 straight games, with each victory adding further merit to the curse's existence.

This is just part of the history leading into Friday's genuine preliminary final blockbuster between the Hawks and Cats at the MCG, which will see the resurgent brown and gold against the omnipresent blue and white hoops.

Kennett can take some credit for the current Hawks, given his board's decision to cut short the succession plan between Alastair Clarkson and Sam Mitchell and hand the keys to Mitchell for the 2022 season. Now in his fourth year, Mitchell has engineered a rapid rise after an aggressive rebuild phase.

Both preliminary final battles serve as this century's Big Four once again battling for the cup. Since 2001, Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood have combined for 14 premierships. In four other years, one of the four has made the Grand Final and lost. This year will be the sixth time two of the four have played off in a flag decider.

The only other contender for the AFL's Big Four this millennium is Sydney, who have played in seven Grand Finals for two flags in the period, the same (so far) as Collingwood. However the Pies' prelim run – this year is their 12th top-four finish in 24 years – gives them the edge.

Brisbane lost to Collingwood in the Grand Final two years ago, came back better last year to salute and now the past two premiers lock horns again at the MCG on Saturday. The Lions' selection call to bring in Oscar McInerney to thwart Jarrod Witts' influence was a tick against Gold Coast and now Craig McRae faces his own dilemma with Bobby Hill inching closer to a recall.

DO SEMI-FINAL LOSERS TAKE TRADE PLUNGE?

FINALS defeats often shift the list management needle.

The clubs that make semi or preliminary finals but bow out can sense they are close. Maybe close enough to take a trade period swing?

We are about to see how patient – or otherwise – Damien Hardwick is after Gold Coast's best ever campaign.

The Suns' key forwards were dominated by the Lions' defence, with Harris Andrews unbelievable on Saturday night. Ben King kicked two early goals but combined with Ethan Read, the pair had 10 disposals. Jy Farrar and Ben Long, playing as quasi medium talls, had 12 disposals between them.

Waiting in the wings for Gold Coast is No.3 pick Jed Walter, who will soon get an updated contract offer to extend at the club beyond 2026. But what does the Suns' finals exit leave Hardwick and Gold Coast thinking about Blues superstar Charlie Curnow?

Curnow is keen on the Gold Coast, like he is on Sydney and Geelong, but no club is yet to table a significant play for him as manoeuvrings and possibilities are thrown up in the background.

A two-time Coleman medallist wants to be traded and the door is open for any of the three clubs to make it happen if they can appease Carlton, which will be a tough task.

Sam Flanders is weighing up his future amid interest from the Blues, Saints, Bombers and Demons, but the Suns must also find enough points to match bids on their incoming haul of Academy prospects. It is a delicate balancing act but premierships are hard won and the Suns' list isn't far away from being a true contender given the strides made this season.

Hardwick will have no doubt pondered the ifs, buts and maybes of a season-ending defeat on his way back to Gold Coast post-game, but the prospect of how to get Curnow might also have crossed his mind as a potential missing piece alongside King.

The same might be said for Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks and his reliance on gun captain Jordan Dawson.

That reliance is shown in Dawson's performance across the year, with the All-Australian averaging 6.3 more Rating Points in a win than he did in defeat, which was the biggest differential of any midfielder this season. Champion Data showed Dawson averaged 9.5 Rating Points in losses, which was the fewest of the top 50 rated players.

He needs more help in there and the Crows have been in the midfield market in recent seasons, including a mega offer to Errol Gulden last year and the same for Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera this season.

The Crows will have a dip at Zach Merrett as he plots a way out of Essendon and should pitch themselves to the Bombers skipper even if he wants to stay in Victoria, while Melbourne pair Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver would be well served in considering the Crows as destinations too.

Adelaide was among the clubs interested in Oliver two years ago and a midfield addition would be the final piece of a list rebuild that came to fruition this season, despite the September stumble.

MERRETT HELLBENT ON HAWKS

ZACH Merrett has his head and heart set on going to Hawthorn and the Hawks have caught a massive bite after fishing for midfielders all season. It is a trade that the gun Bomber will pursue until the deadline day buzzer – and it might well go down to those frantic final moments.

Adelaide, Melbourne and St Kilda are all chasing midfielders and will doubtless ask the question but the (for now) Essendon captain sees Hawthorn as his ticket to premiership success.

Essendon's president, coach, chief executive and senior players have all spoken since Merrett's meeting with Hawks coach Sam Mitchell came to light, just one night after he had met with his current coach Brad Scott.

It is now over to Hawthorn to find the value for a soon-to-be 30-year-old who wants to play for at least another six years until his late 30s, has played 251 of a possible 266 games in 12 seasons and is about to win his sixth best and fairest, an event he looks likely to skip in a move that would be perceived as making it untenable to return.

Before that is Brownlow Medal night next week, where he will be on the Bombers' table and will poll the most votes for his side. Broadcasters might as well have a locked-off camera on Merrett through the night given the fascination with his decision as he inches closer to football's biggest defection from a leader since Western Bulldogs captain Ryan Griffen quit the Dogs for the Giants, and arguably the biggest in Essendon's long history.

Given the Bombers' public hard-line stance on a trade, any offer to come their way will have to be significant to turn their head. The efforts to go nuclear – clearly seen as Merrett's only way of getting out of the club whilst under contract for two more years – mean Essendon can sit and wait for those calls to come.

They already hold picks No.4, 5, 22 and 25, and will get either pick No.6 or an end of first-round selection for Sam Draper's free agency exit. The Hawks' pick No.8 will be a starting point for any proposed offer and while the headstrong Merrett is hellbent on leaving, the Hawks will need to be just as hellbent on getting it done.

HAWK ON POWER RADAR

PORT Adelaide has Hawthorn development guru Andy Collins on its radar as the Power set up for an almost brand new football program under Josh Carr.

Collins has been the Hawks' head of development since 2022 and a key part of Sam Mitchell's coaching panel, having been a long-time coach at state league level as well following his three-premiership career with the Hawks.

It is understood Collins is among the targets for the Power as they look to add to their coaching panel, having already signed West Coast assistant Luke Webster. They also have their eye on 2004 Port premiership player Stuart Dew, who is at Brisbane but has considered a return to Alberton Oval.

It comes as experienced assistant Carr takes the reins of the club after this year's succession plan and the Power look to find a replacement for outgoing football boss Chris Davies, who has landed at Carlton.

The Power have also farewelled long-time assistant Chad Cornes and coaches manager Rob Mason, who has joined Tasmania, while they have restructured their high performance unit with Tim Parham joining as director of athletic performance.

PIES' PLAN FOR MCRAE TO STAY

COLLINGWOOD is into its third preliminary final in four years under coach Craig McRae. An off-season extension beyond the end of 2026 looms.

The Magpies will look to progress talks once their September campaign finishes to lock in McRae once past the end of his current deal, which ties him to the club until the end of 2026.

McRae took on the Pies' role at the end of 2021 and penned a two-year extension during the 2023 season, before steering the club to its 16th premiership later that year.

He has a 69 per cent winning record and if the Pies progress to this year's Grand Final with a win over Brisbane in Saturday's preliminary final, the flag decider will be McRae's 100th game as Collingwood coach.

He told AFL.com.au ahead of the 2024 season he didn't see himself as a 'lifer' coach and that he wasn't sure he would be coaching Collingwood within five years.

"I am deliberate in saying that, because I know this is not forever and I am really conscious of that. I'm not going to put a ceiling on it but also I am a realist. When I stepped in, I don't know if you remember my first interviews? I am pumped to be here, I am, but I know it is not forever. I am really conscious to sit in it and appreciate the opportunity I've been given," McRae said.

"But I'm not thinking long-term with this. I've got three years (on a contract), and every moment will be to assess what is important in my life, and the job I'm doing."

McRae is one of five coaches set to come out of contract at the end of 2026, alongside Adelaide's Matthew Nicks, Carlton's Michael Voss and Richmond's Adem Yze, while Geelong coach Chris Scott's deal expires next year too, but he is expected to ink a three-year extension to the end of 2029.

The Crows have held the position that talks on a Nicks extension would come at the end of their season, with Adelaide's campaign finishing earlier than they would've hoped with back-to-back finals losses after being minor premiers.

The Tigers' CEO Shane Dunne recently told AFL.com.au that the club would "contemplate" an extension for Yze over summer, while Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir moved to an rolling employment arrangement ahead of the Dockers' 2025 season.

HOW HAWKS COVERED DAY

WHEN Will Day went down with another stress fracture in his foot after round 21, the Hawks' flag hopes looked to spiral with him.

The club's most dynamic midfielder and difference maker was going to miss the rest of the season and took away Sam Mitchell's on-ball wildcard.

But Mitchell and the Hawks have found ways to adjust. Since Day's injury, the Hawks have solidified their centre bounce mix to be largely one of these three combinations: James Worpel, Jai Newcombe and Conor Nash (used 34 times), Josh Ward, Nash and Newcombe (25) and Worpel, Ward and Newcombe (25).

Worpel might be in his final few weeks as a Hawthorn player before heading to Geelong as a free agent but he is ending in terrific form, while Newcombe's finals status has been incredible, with the star midfielder the highest rated player in all four of his finals. No player in the history of Player Ratings (since 2010) has ranked best afield in four straight finals, let alone the first four of a career.

Mitchell's mix sans Day has seen Dylan Moore attend 25 centre bounces in the past five games, making him the Hawks' No.5 option, a jump from the seventh-most used in the first 21 rounds, according to Champion Data.

Nick Watson has also doubled his average centre bounce attendances over the past five weeks compared to the first 21.

Against Adelaide on Friday night, Mitchell entrusted almost exclusively the quartet of Newcombe, Worpel, Nash and Ward to get it done and they did. Their coverage without some of Day's movement and class has put them into the preliminary final and was part of the difference against the Crows.

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