Packers vs. Vikings: 5 things to watch and prediction for Week 17

The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings have a historic matchup waiting in the 129th edition of the rivalry on Sunday afternoon from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

Never before have the two teams had more combined wins entering a matchup. The Packers are 11-4, the Vikings 13-2. Both teams have clinched a playoff spot with two games left.

Can the Packers get one of the most impressive wins of the 2024 season — a road victory in late December against a 13-win team — on Sunday?

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 17:

Perfect playoff prep

The Packers can’t win the division and are guaranteed to be going on the road in the first round of the NFC playoffs. What better way to prepare for a loud, raucous environment in the postseason than playing a high-stakes road game at U.S. Bank Stadium? The Packers won a big game in Seattle earlier this month. Survive the challenges of playing indoors in Minneapolis on Sunday and the Packers will be perfectly playoff tested. Just imagine how confident the Packers will be in their “road warrior” status if they can take down the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium this week.

Extending the streak

The Packers have scored 30 or more points in five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, have allowed 30 or more points in only two games this season, and they lost both games. Will it take 30 to beat the Vikings on Sunday? It might, but getting to 30 will be tough against the NFL’s third-ranked scoring defense, especially inside at U.S. Bank Stadium. Last year, the Packers scored 33 points in a win in Minneapolis but were benefitted from a pair of turnovers from a backup quarterback. This will be an ideal test for an ascending Packers scoring machine.

Legit or fool’s gold?

The Packers defense has been one of the NFL’s best since the bye, but it’s fair to wonder if the results are a bit of fool’s gold considering the level of competition. There’s no question about the quality of the Vikings’ talented and dynamic offense, so the Packers defense — which now ranks sixth in points allowed — has a big opportunity to prove their legitimacy. Jeff Hafley’s group won’t have three starters: Jaire Alexander, Quay Walker and Evan Williams. The Vikings have a quarterback playing well in an excellent scheme, a dynamic running back, two legitimate playmakers at receiver and a catch-gobbling tight end. A big test awaits for the Packers defense.

Pass rushing point

The Vikings offensive line ranks 26th in pass blocking efficiency, and Sam Darnold is 23rd among quarterbacks in pressure-to-sack ratio. This is a game where the Packers pass rush must take over in big spots. Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark, Lukas Van Ness, Devonte Wyatt and Brenton Cox Jr. have all been better as pass-rushers since the bye, helping power a truly disruptive stretch up front from the Packers. Can the pass-rush win one-on-one matchups without blitzing and consistently pressure Darnold? The secondary will be down two starters, so the defensive front must do the heavy lifting.

Run game test

In the first meeting, the Packers fell behind by multiple scores early and only gave Josh Jacobs nine rushing attempts. Becoming one-dimensional against the Vikings on the road is a disastrous recipe, so the game script has to allow Jacobs to remain a threat on the ground. Even if the Packers can stick with the run, getting results will be tough work. The Vikings have allowed only 3.9 yards per rush this season. It might take a special individual effort from Jacobs — who leads the NFL in missed tackles forced since the bye — to get the Packers going in the run game. But it must happen to win Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 28 (9-6)

A dream matchup — a divisional showdown between two of the NFL’s top teams with important playoff positioning on the line — and a chance for the Packers to score a big-time road win with the postseason just weeks away. Matt LaFleur’s team started December with a chance to go into Detroit and grab a signature win. A couple of bad breaks and missed opportunities cost the Packers that win. But a chance at redemption arrives in Minneapolis to end December, and I think the Packers take it running. Matt LaFleur’s team must prove they can stick to their identity on the road in a hostile environment and beat a true contender — something that will be required multiple times if the Packers are to go on a run in the postseason. Well-balanced on both sides of the ball and confident coming off back-to-back blowout wins, the Packers have what it takes to win this football game. In a back-and-forth shootout, I think Jordan Love creates the one clutch play late to help the Packers escape with a narrow win.

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