What every BBL team needs to play finals as miracle run from second-last still alive — The Run Home

With just eight games left in the BBL15 season, seven teams still have a shot at playing finals, with only one side locked in.

And the last two matches before the finals are shaping as blockbusters - potentially deciding the double chance AND who sneaks into fourth spot.

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See what every team needs in their remaining games in The Run Home!

All times AEDT.

BBL FINALS SCHEDULE

January 20: 1st hosts 2nd (The Qualifier)

January 21: 3rd hosts 4th (The Knockout)

January 23: Qualifier Loser hosts Knockout Winner (The Challenger)

January 25: Winner of Qualifier hosts Winner of Challenger (The Final)

LOCKED IN

1. HOBART HURRICANES (6-2 plus one abandoned, +0.398 NRR)

To play: Heat at Ninja Stadium (7:15pm on Jan 14)

The Hurricanes’ regular season ends before anyone else’s, and they’ll enjoy a healthy rest heading into another finals series with the abandoned clash with the Sixers clinching their place.

They may not have to leave Tasmania again this season, because beating the Heat at home on Wednesday night will secure top spot.

But with a loss they could still fall as low as third, behind the Sixers and either the Stars or Scorchers.

Despite their 5-3 records because the Stars and Scorchers have one game left against each other, they can’t both pass the Hurricanes.

FIGHTING FOR TOP FOUR

2. PERTH SCORCHERS (5-3, +1.162 NRR)

To play: Renegades at Marvel Stadium (7:15pm on Jan 15), Stars at Optus Stadium (8:15pm on Jan 17)

With an excellent net run rate the Scorchers could be safe already, but beating one of the Melbourne sides later this week would make it official.

Even if they’re upset by the Renegades on Thursday night, the Scorchers can earn a home final or double chance by beating the Stars on Saturday.

If the Hurricanes lose to the Heat on Wednesday, then the Scorchers can claim top spot by winning both their remaining games.

The Scorchers could still miss the finals entirely if they lose to both Melbourne teams, combined with two of: two more Renegades wins, two Heat wins, one Sixers win.

3. MELBOURNE STARS (5-3, +0.909 NRR)

To play: Strikers at the MCG (7:15pm on Jan 13), Scorchers at Optus Stadium (8:15pm on Jan 17)

Despite the drama of their three-game losing skid, beating the Renegades put the Stars back in the driver’s seat for a finals place.

They’ll clinch a berth with one more win, with Saturday night’s game against the Scorchers likely to determine who gets the double chance in the finals.

If the Hurricanes lose to the Heat on Wednesday, then the Stars can claim top spot by winning both their remaining games.

However if the Stars lose both their remaining games they could be passed by the Renegades (if they win all three of their remaining games), the Heat (if they win both of their remaining games) and/or the Sixers (if they win once).

4. SYDNEY SIXERS (4-3 plus one abandoned, +0.458 NRR)

To play: Thunder at the SCG (7:15pm on Jan 16), Heat at the Gabba (7:15pm on Jan 18)

The Sixers should only need one more win to be safe, and with Steve Smith back they’re looking pretty dangerous.

But they’ll be watching the next two nights closely as the Renegades and Heat are their biggest remaining threats.

If both sides lose their upcoming games (Renegades at Thunder, Heat at Hurricanes), then the Sixers can secure a finals spot by beating the Thunder on Friday night.

If not, or if the Sixers lose the Sydney derby, the final game of the season against the Heat shapes as an early elimination final with the winner likely claiming fourth spot.

5. BRISBANE HEAT (4-4, -0.446 NRR)

To play: Hurricanes at Ninja Stadium (7:15pm on Jan 14), Sixers at the Gabba (7:15pm on Jan 18)

The Heat still control their own destiny as winning both of their remaining games will guarantee them at least fourth.

However if they lose to the Hurricanes on Wednesday night, they could be eliminated by the time their final game against the Sixers begins - effectively if the Sixers beat the Thunder, that’d be it for the Heat, because of their poor net run rate.

SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE...

6. ADELAIDE STRIKERS (3-5, -0.420 NRR)

To play: Stars at the MCG (7:15pm on Jan 13), Renegades at Adelaide Oval (5pm on Jan 17)

The Strikers need to win both their games and get some help to sneak into the finals.

Their net run rate isn’t horrible but thumping the Stars on Tuesday night would really open up the possibilities for them.

Their biggest problem is the Sixers and Heat still have a game against each other, so one of them will get another win and move further ahead. The Strikers will definitely need whoever wins that game to lose their other remaining game.

Realistically their only scenario to finish fourth is going 2-0 while the Sixers go 0-2 and the Heat go 1-1 (beating the Sixers).

7. MELBOURNE RENEGADES (3-4, -0.713 NRR)

To play: Thunder at Engie Stadium (7:15pm on Jan 12), Scorchers at Marvel Stadium (7:15pm on Jan 15), Strikers at Adelaide Oval (5pm on Jan 17)

The Renegades’ backloaded schedule means they could still come from the clouds to play finals, though they can’t really afford another loss.

Winning all three games should be enough to get them into the finals though even that isn’t guaranteed because of their woeful net run rate.

If the Scorchers beat the Stars, the Stars beat the Strikers and the Sixers win twice, the Gades would probably still be fifth if they went 3-0.

MATHEMATICALLY ELIMINATED

8. SYDNEY THUNDER (1-7, -1.348 NRR)

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